چه چیزی در هنگام مدلسازی تاثیر اقتصادی استانداردهای بهره وری مصرف انرژی مهم است؟

Energy efficiency standards are often cited as a potential economic driver for states that implement them. We identify the major factors that need to be included when determining the economic impact of energy efficiency standards and discuss how these determinants may be incorrectly estimated or ignored within the economic impact literature. Finally, we find that there is a tendency to over-estimate the economic impact of energy efficiency standards and that any jobs created may come at the cost of reduced employment in relatively well-paid sectors

Improvements in energy efficiency, with a focus on electricity usage, occur when the total amount of electricity required to produce a given amount of a good/service or to achieve a particular outcome decreases. In effect, energy efficiency reduces the electricity-intensive nature of the particular production process in question. For instance, the installation of a new, more efficient,2 air-conditioning (AC) unit would require less electricity to cool a home to a particular temperature than an older and less efficient system. Many energy efficiency advocates argue that increased levels of energy efficiency generated via the introduction of an energy efficiency standard provides a “win–win–win” situation. That is, that energy efficiency is cost effective, clean and creates numerous jobs. Leaving questions to one side about the first two “win situations” and why regulation is needed in the first place to encourage improved energy efficiency adoption if it is reportedly such a “good idea”,3 the purpose of this paper is to examine in more detail the claims of the final point. To examine how energy efficiency may lead to improved economic outcomes such as creating jobs, identification of the major determinants or “drivers” of job creation via the adoption of energy efficiency standards is required. Once this identification process is completed we will then be able to highlight how an over/under estimation of the true economic impact associated with energy efficiency standards may occur.4 This type of analysis is important if credible results are going to be estimated. Croucher et al. (2010) examined numerous different reports that looked at the economic impact of introducing various different technologies, including increased adoption of energy efficiency measures, to reduce carbon emissions. They show that studies that estimate improved environmental outcomes as well as positive impacts on economic activity rely on dubious assumptions surrounding renewable energy costs and/or over-estimation of the overall economic benefits from energy efficiency. Section 2 lays out a more complete method for estimating the economic impact of energy efficiency and discusses how the identified determinants may be incorrectly estimated or ignored within the literature. Section 3 examines the performance of an often-cited study that estimates the economic impact of energy efficiency in the Southwestern States of America. Section 4 provides some conclusions.

Energy efficiency is growing in popularity throughout the United States in large part due to its perceived “win–win–win” outcome. That is, energy efficiency is cost effective, clean and creates numerous jobs. The purpose of this report was not to refute these claims but instead to further understand what is crucial when evaluating the economic impact of energy efficiency standards with regards to electricity consumption. Overall estimating the economic impact of energy efficiency standards/measures is not as simplistic as first thought. There are numerous factors that need to be estimated and included in any economic impact analysis if the results are going to accurate. The single most important estimation is the electricity expenditure savings that occur as a result of an energy efficiency standard being introduced. Unfortunately, the simplistic approach of using the retail price of electricity and savings stipulated by the energy efficiency standard will significantly over-estimate the true societal savings that occur. This approach will inevitably lead to an over-estimation of the economic impact of an energy efficiency standard. Thus, reports that do this type of analysis should be treated with caution. Finally, whilst energy efficiency standards may cause an increase in the number of jobs within an economy they do come at a cost. Overall, job creation via an energy efficiency standard tends to occur, for the most part, in sectors that are relatively low-paid such as retail and services sector, at the cost of reduced employment in higher-paid sectors such as the utility sector. Energy efficiency advocates attempt to justify this creation of lower paying jobs by suggesting that the energy efficiency measures will result in lower costs of living, which may offset the lower wages being paid. However there is no evidence that the individuals who obtain one of the lower-paid jobs actually engage in the energy efficiency measures. Ultimately the acceptability of the employment trade-off is left to the reader to determine.