ارزیابی بهره وری انرژی انتخابی و سرمایه گذاری های انرژی تجدید پذیر در کشورهای شریک مدیترانه

This article presents an assessment of selected energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) investments planned by nine Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPCs) over 2011–2020. The investments looked at focus on: (1) urban energy efficiency and small-scale renewables (“demand-side”), and (2) large-scale renewable power generation (“supply-side”). The article also discusses the implications of deploying such projects in terms of potential energy saved or produced and economic impacts. The main findings of this article are: (1) the MPCs need to identify more EE and RE investments and accelerate the development process of the identified ones in order to fulfil their national targets; (2) the full deployment of EE and RE investments identified towards the achievement of the envisaged 2020 targets require significant investment costs and some subsidies; (3) significant (mostly) financial and organizational barriers still hinder the implementation of the examined EE and RE investments. Insights generated by this article can be useful regional messages for energy policy leaders in the MPCs to accelerate the development of the selected EE and RE investments.

1.1. Context Energy consumption is rapidly increasing in the Mediterranean Partner Countries1 (MPCs) due to growing population, increasing urbanization and economic development. This increase, particularly influenced by high energy subsidies, is characterised by inefficient use of energy in the various sectors [1] and [2]. Meeting the energy demand growth would require major investments in energy infrastructures in the coming years. Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) investments could be significant contributors, if adequately supported by policy measures. The Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP), a priority initiative by the Union for the Mediterranean2 (UfM), aims at coping with the challenges posed by energy demand increases, security of supply and environmental sustainability in the Euro-Mediterranean region by boosting EE investments and developing RE sources (mainly solar and wind). Such investments could also lead to increased economic competitiveness and local employment opportunities. 1.2. Main objectives This article presents a preliminary assessment of the EE and RE investment projects as identified in the MPCs' existing national plans to be implemented by 2020. First, it aims at identifying and assessing EE and RE projects proposed in the national plans to be implemented over 2011–2020. Second, it intends to assess the economic and financial profitability of the identified projects, and quantify the main implications of the total or partial implementation of these projects. These implications cover more specifically (i) the expected energy savings and RE production by 2020, (ii) the necessary investment volume, and (iii) the subsidies3 required for the deployment of the identified projects by 2020. The work presented here is of particular interest since as of today, research specific to the MPC region in the fields of EE and RE projects' identification and economic implications has remained limited. 1.3. Brief literature review A review of identified literature and specific sectoral studies has been undertaken. Most of the literature has focused on RE resources and suggests that the MPCs possess substantial potentials in terms of wind and solar power [3]. Number of sources qualify the MPC region's solar potential as exceptional and mention significant wind resources [4] and [5]. Less has been published on EE and small-scale RE in the MPCs. Nevertheless most sources concur that large gains could be achieved from improved energy efficiency with relatively high investment returns in the short and long term [6]. The main source of the potential energy savings is the inefficient energy consumption patterns reflected by high energy intensities in the main energy consuming sectors [7]. In particular, significant energy savings potential exist in the urban environment; i.e. both residential and tertiary sectors, due to growing urban population and expansion of new dwellings and cities in the region4[8]. Despite these significant potentials, there is still limited research on the assessment of deployment potentials of EE and RE projects in the region. In fact, clean energy investments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) represented only 1% of such global new investments made in 2011; going down from 2.2% of global clean energy investments in 2010 [9]. The deployment of EE and small-scale RE technologies is still limited in the MPCs compared to the potential; for instance less than 20% of residential households in the region have already adopted EE measures and technologies [10]. Similarly, the current installed capacities for onshore wind, concentrated solar power (CSP), and photovoltaic (PV) technologies are small in comparison with their potentials in the MPCs. On the contrary, most of the hydropower economic potential has already been developed [11].

This article aimed to analyse EE and RE investment projects in the MPCs as identified in their national plans. It informed about potentials and opportunities for EE and RE investments in the MPC region on the way to expand their implementation, and some key implications the policy makers and energy stakeholders in the region might consider to foster this implementation. Moreover, it generated new insights into the economic impacts and investment needs required in the region based on identified concrete projects from the national energy plans. Despite the fact that MPCs have already started to implement EE and RE projects, the identified projects would not meet the envisaged 2020 targets. Therefore, there is a clear need for the MPCs to identify, accelerate and systematically develop EE (in all sectors, including also transportation and industry) and RE (especially solar) projects if their 2020 targets were to be met. Significant investment needs (i.e. EUR 110 billion) and subsidies to attain a sufficient economic profitability (i.e. EUR 32 billion) would be needed to significantly deploy the EE and RE projects looked at by 2020. Moreover, significant non-financial barriers shall be addressed in order to realise this potential. This could be supported by the provision of technical assistance, the strengthening the existing institutional and policy frameworks, and the developing capacity building and awareness programmes. Despite the wide-ranging messages of this research it has several limitations related to the changing national EE and RE targets, dynamic nature of the project inventory task and simplified economic and financial models used to assess the profitability of the EE and RE technologies. Further research would be needed to validate and update the identified EE and RE projects pipeline, review economic models to account for technological advancement (e.g. changes in unitary investment costs) and perform in-depth analysis of the rapid changes in the institutional and regulatory frameworks in the MPCs. Since the achievement of demand-side targets was not considered in the assessment of supply-side target shortfalls, a more comprehensive approach integrating supply-side and demand-side measures and programmes could help achieve EE and RE targets in the MPCs faster, and would be interesting to focus on in further research.