اقتصاد سایه در کشورهای در حال گذار: دوست یا دشمن؟ دیدگاه سیاست

By treating the shadow economy as a distinct entity, rather than just a symptom of policy failures, we are able to examine its short-term and dynamic consequences for development. First, we construct measures of the size of the shadow economy in 25 transition countries for 1990–97. We find hysterisis suggesting that, once established, the shadow economy is hard to remove: a dollar decline (rise) in official GDP is attenuated by a shadow expansion (contraction) of 31 (25) cents. We then examine whether the shadow economy prevents, merely slows down, or actually promotes economic growth and competitiveness, and through what mechanisms. We also consider implications for policymaking.