نرخ واقعی ارز و پاسخ خروجی در چهار کشور اتحادیه اروپا

This paper estimates the response of output to changes in the real exchange rate in four central and eastern European Emerging Market economies using a new time series technique to generate robust short- and long-run estimates in small samples, where the integration properties of the variables are unknown. The reduced form estimation results show that devaluation is neutral in its effect on the long-run level of GDP in the Czech Republic and Hungary, but that a real appreciation leads to a persistent fall in output in Poland and a sustained rise in output in Slovakia.