برآورد تاثیر اثر بالاسا ساموئلسون در تورم و نرخ واقعی ارز در طول انتقال

In this paper, we investigate whether the Balassa–Samuelson (B–S) effect holds for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia during the transition process. The co-integration analysis suggests that the importance of the B–S effect does differ across countries. Generally, we can establish long-term co-integration relationships between productivity growth and relative prices while the link between relative price movement and the Real Exchange Rate Developments turns out to be weaker. We seek to calculate the extent to which the B–S effect may influence inflation and the real exchange rate and subsequently discuss policy implications.