پویایی نرخ ارز واقعی در اقتصادهای در حال گذار

The paper analyzes the phenomenon of real exchange rate appreciation that has characterized transition economies. It is shown that the real exchange rate—measured as the relative price of tradables in terms of non-tradables—is affected by adverse initial conditions and structural reforms only in the first 5 years of the transition process. After that period, the so-called Balassa–Samuelson effect seems to dominate the real exchange rate determination. The paper discusses the implications for exchange rate policy and concludes that while for countries of the former Soviet Union a flexible exchange rate regime seems desirable, for Central and Eastern Europe countries a stable exchange rate and even an early move to the adoption of the euro should be considered.