اقتصاد روسیه بیست سال پس از پایان سیستم اقتصادی سوسیالیستی

It is now more than twenty years since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the beginning of transition to a market economy. The non-market, ‘planned’ economic system of the old order had its own specific mode of functioning, which over time had a profound impact on the structure of the economy. The article explores the extent to which the far-reaching economic transformation undertaken in post-communist Russia since the end of 1991 has overcome the legacies of the Soviet system. Has the socialist economic order that existed for over sixty years disappeared entirely, or are there still survivals and legacies that shape and influence, at least in part, the present-day Russian economy? These issues are examined by focussing on one particular sector that played a dominant role in the USSR, namely the defence industry and the military economy more generally. It is concluded that there are indeed significant survivals and legacies of the socialist past: market transformation is still incomplete

This article has explored the extent to which the present-day Russian economy still possesses features inherited from the socialist economic system of the USSR, with a focus on the military sector, which has remained the least changed by overall market transformation. But, as argued, in some other respects the Soviet legacy lives on in the new post-communist order. This is not surprising. The socialist ‘planned’ economy existed for over sixty years and became profoundly institutionalised and those today in leading positions of power in Russia are products of that system and to some extent bearers of mentalities associated with it. Amongst economists there has been much discussion of whether market transition has been completed in the ex-communist countries. While there is a good case that it has been in some countries of Eastern Europe, now established members of the European Union, it is more debatable with respect to Russia and other member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States. For Russia, the undisputed principal actor of the military economy of the former Warsaw Treaty Organisation, the phenomenon of protracted transformation is the least unexpected. A strong case of path dependency is not being asserted, rather a matter of political-economic institutional inertia. A final consideration arises from the fact that it is now twenty years since the collapse of Soviet communism and during that time there have been many significant changes in the wider world. The process of globalisation has gathered pace and major new actors have emerged in the world economy, challenging the dominant powers of the post Second World War settlement. More recently, there has been a severe global financial-economic crisis which, at the time of writing, has not fully run its course. These processes have led to changes in the market model itself, making more problematic the criteria by which the present-day Russian economy should be assessed. It has become evident that soft budget constraints are not a phenomenon of the Socialist economic system alone, but can exist in the most developed market economies, where companies considered ‘too big to fail’ can be subject to budget support by governments, even by those with a strong ideological commitment to free markets.40 Perhaps, after all, notwithstanding the reservations outlined in this paper, Russia is now much nearer to becoming a ‘normal’ market economy.