نرخ ارز واقعی دلار برای یک پانل از کشورهای OECD: بالاسا ساموئلسون یا توزیع اثر بخش ؟

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the role of productivity in the behaviour of the real exchange rate of the dollar against the currencies of a group of OECD countries. To do this, a general specification is tested, with particular attention being paid to the breakdown of the productivity variable into tradables, non-tradables and distribution sector productivity. The applied technique relies on the pool mean group estimation methodology proposed by Pesaran et al. [Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.P., 1999. Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels, Journal of the American Statistical Association 94 (446), 621–634] to obtain error correction models in panels without imposing equal long-run and short-run parameters. The results point to the relevance of differences in the distribution sector productivity for the real exchange rate, especially in those countries that belong to the European Union. These results are in accordance with New Open Economy Macroeconomics models predictions as far as the role of both distribution sector productivity and fiscal expenditure on the real exchange rate are concerned. Journal of Comparative Economics36 (4) (2008) 620–632.