تنظیم غیر خطی از نرخ ارز واقعی به سمت مقدار تعادلی آن: اصلاح خطای انتقال مدل سازی پانل صاف

We study the nonlinear dynamics of the real exchange rate towards its behavioral equilibrium value (BEER) using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model framework. We show that the real exchange rate convergence process in the long-run is characterized by nonlinearities for emerging economies, whereas industrialized countries exhibit a linear pattern. Moreover, there exists an asymmetric behavior of the real exchange rate when facing an over- or an undervaluation of the domestic currency. Finally, our results suggest that the real exchange rate may be unable to unwind alone global imbalances.