توسعه و رشد اقتصادی در اقتصاد جهانی

This paper investigates whether technological shocks, constructed to be consistent with the observed cross-country income dispersion, are also capable of accounting for development regularities related to capital accumulation. This question is approached via a quantitative theoretical analysis of an integrated world economy model. An open economy framework constrains country heterogeneity to be consistent with international capital flows. Moreover, it enables the study of distinctively open economy development facts. The model produces time-invariant cross-sectional distributions for development variables, whose properties are quantitatively compared with the Penn World Table data set. The model generates too little dispersion in capital-output ratios and investment rates. However, it is consistent with the relative importance of investment, saving, and international capital flows for economic development.

The goal of this paper is to investigate whether cross-country technological differences, which are designed to match the observed cross-country income dispersion, are also capable of accounting for development facts related to physical capital accumulation. Specifically, this paper is interested in three sets of questions. The first set concerns cross-country dispersion in capital-output ratios: How much of this dispersion can the model account for? What fraction is due to investment-specific technological differences, and what fraction is due to neutral productivity differences? What is the contribution of international borrowing and lending? Secondly, the paper asks whether the model generates differences in investment rates and saving rates, which are as large and persistent as in the data. Finally, a third set of questions looks at the interaction between saving, investment, and cross-country capital flows. Specifically, the paper asks whether, in the model, currently richer countries have saved more, and especially invested more in the past; and whether faster-growing countries tend to save more, and especially invest more. The paper then looks at development miracles and disasters as an illustration of these regularities.

I am very grateful to the editor, Robert Lucas, for his valuable comments. I am deeply indebted to Per Krusell for his guidance, support, and many helpful suggestions. In addition, Sílvia Gonçalves, Rui Albuquerque, Mark Bils, Daniele Coen-Pirani, Tim Kehoe, Nour Meddahi, Tony Smith, Alan Stockman, and seminar participants at various locations provided helpful comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are mine. Financial support from Praxis XXI is gratefully acknowledged.