توسعه اقتصادی چین، به مرحله بعد: بیرون FDI؟

China's development path has been widely recognised as being unique, with gradual privatisation and marketisation, massive private capital inflows, and extensive exporting. All this has been achieved without political democratisation. This paper draws attention to a new emerging phenomenon—significant Chinese levels of outward FDI (OFDI)—and takes a first step towards understanding this development at an aggregate level. The question arises, is China's OFDI another unique characteristic of Chinese distinctive economic development path and reform policies, or does it follow an established, universal pattern, specifically Dunning's investment development path (IDP) hypothesis, or rather a refined version of the IDP? In other words, do Chinese OFDI patterns suggest refinements to established theories, or even their refutation? To address these questions, however, exogeneity tests reveal a need to use GMM estimation methods rather than straightforward regressions, since relations between economic development and OFDI are complex and inter-dependent. The GMM results suggest that the level of economic development, proxied by GDP per capita plus refinements, is still the main factor explaining China's rate of OFDI. This is quite consistent with the refined IDP hypothesis and patterns broadly noted elsewhere. Conclusions are drawn for theory, policy and international business.

This study has two main objectives, one theoretical and one methodological. After observing and recording the extent and character of the important and novel, recent phenomenon of Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), the paper considers whether Chinese OFDI follows a universally standard pattern and sequence proposed by Dunning's (1981) investment development path (IDP) hypothesis, as subsequently refined, or whether new theories are needed for (a) transition economies and/or (b) developing economies, as already proposed in the literature, but based on regression analysis. Of course a link between per capita income and OFDI may be considered to be mere common-sense. Therefore, the paper develops IDP development stages (and subsequently IDP hypotheses) from the first principles of Dunning's eclectic paradigm (see Dunning, 2003), explaining how locational advantages can ‘flip’ to produce OFDI. Furthermore, a common-sense view of the IDP could imply a uni-directional relationship between per capita income (supplemented by other variables such as inward FDI, investments in education and exporting). Further consideration, however, could raise causal complexities behind this common-sense view. Is OFDI determined by incomes and/or are incomes influenced by OFDI? Does interdependence exist between inward FDI, investments in human capital, exports and OFDI, or are such variables themselves determined by income levels, perhaps in a lagged fashion? Do time trends obscure underlying relationships?

This study suggests three theoretical developments in relation to first, the alleged need to accommodate new variables specific to transitional and developing economies; second, the necessity for other refinements to the IDP hypothesis that should apply to all countries; third, the theoretical need to accommodate interdependence and co-movement between variables. The main research question addressed in this paper was concerned with whether the emergence of significant OFDI outflows from China represented a uniquely Chinese phenomenon, as a result of China's institutions and idiosyncratic economic reforms, or whether they could still be explained in terms of China's stage of development and the established, but refined, IDP hypothesis. The theoretical importance of this question is raised by earlier studies suggesting that new theories are needed for developing and transitional economies.