دینامیک سببی بین مصرف زغال سنگ و رشد اقتصادی: شواهدی از اقتصادهای بازار نوظهور

This study examines the relationship between coal consumption and economic growth for 15 emerging market economies within a multivariate panel framework over the period 1980–2006. The heterogeneous panel cointegration results indicate there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, coal consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force. While in the long-run both real gross fixed capital formation and the labor force have a significant positive impact on real GDP, coal consumption has a significant negative impact. The panel causality tests show bidirectional causality between coal consumption and economic growth in both the short- and long-run.

Though coal has been a dependable energy source within the world’s energy consumption mix, the environmental consequences of the sustained use of coal has drawn into question the long-term viability of coal in light of the emergence of cleaner, alternative energy sources. Researchers have recently begun to examine the dynamic causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth and the energy policy implications of their findings.1 The strong economic growth and the rising energy demands of emerging market economies motivate the study of the coal consumption-growth nexus for these countries. Specifically, this study extends the previous research in an examination of a balanced panel of 15 emerging market economies as defined by Morgan Stanley capital international (MSCI) over the period 1980–2006 in the estimation of a panel error correction model to infer the causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth.2 Table 1 displays some statistics related to the production and consumption of coal along with carbon dioxide emissions attributed to fossil fuels for the 15 emerging market economies. As the table shows, there is a great deal of variation in these statistics across countries. In terms of coal production, China ranks the highest while Morocco ranks the lowest. In the case of coal consumption, again China ranks the highest while Argentina is the lowest. With respect to carbon dioxide emissions, China has the highest rank whereas Peru has the lowest rank. China, India, and South Africa are among the world leaders in both coal production and consumption, not to mention in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel usage. China ranks first in the world in the production and consumption of coal along with carbon dioxide emissions. India ranks third in both coal production and consumption and fourth in carbon dioxide emissions. South Africa ranks sixth in coal production, seventh in coal consumption, and 12th in carbon dioxide emissions. Further examination of Table 1 reveals, though Indonesia is eighth in coal production, it ranks 26th in coal consumption. In fact, Indonesia was the second largest net exporter of coal in the world for 2004.3 Based on the data reported in Table 1, 12 of the 15 countries are net importers of coal. Table 1. Coal summary statistics, 2006. Country Emerging market economies Coal production Coal consumption Carbon dioxide emissions Argentina 0.051 (58) 0.906 (66) 162.19 (28) Brazil 6.490 (32) 23.604 (27) 377.24 (17) Chile 0.437 (46) 6.445 (47) 64.80 (50) China 2620.498 (1) 2584.246 (1) 6017.69 (1) Egypt 0.028 (62) 1.425 (60) 151.62 (30) Hungary 10.970 (28) 13.059 (35) 58.65 (54) India 500.193 (3) 539.486 (3) 1293.17 (4) Indonesia 213.174 (8) 24.071 (26) 280.36 (22) Malaysia 1.164 (44) 16.868 (31) 163.53 (27) Mexico 12.662 (26) 19.876 (29) 435.60 (13) Morocco 0.000 (66) 6.478 (46) 34.53 (73) Peru 0.118 (53) 1.627 (59) 29.93 (74) Philippines 2.597 (40) 11.117 (37) 72.39 (47) South Africa 269.828 (6) 195.225 (7) 443.58 (12) Thailand 21.022 (22) 33.156 (24) 245.04 (24) Notes: Coal production and consumption denoted in million short tons. Carbon dioxide emissions defined as total from consumption of fossil fuels in million metric tons of CO2. Numbers in parentheses represent world rank. Data obtained from Country Energy Profiles of the Energy Information Administration. Table options The study extends the literature on the causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth along several dimensions. First, the study includes a larger set of countries in the analysis than previous studies. Second, with the exception of the studies by Yuan et al. [37], Payne [24], Wolde-Rufael [39], and Apergis and Payne [4], the analysis will be undertaken within a production model framework by including measures for capital and labor. Third, noting the studies by Hu and Lin [12], Sari et al. [33], Wolde-Rufael [39], and Apergis and Payne [4], the sign and magnitude of the respective coefficient estimates from the panel error correction model will be presented to facilitate the policy interpretation of the findings. Fourth, given the relatively short time horizon of the data, panel unit root and cointegration tests are utilized to provide additional power and size properties over standard unit root and cointegration tests by combining the cross-section and time series data across countries.4 Section 2 outlines the policy implications associated with the causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth along with a summary of the empirical literature to date. Section 3 discusses the data, methodology, and empirical results. Section 4 provides concluding remarks.

In light of the economic growth and rising energy demands of the emerging market economies, this study examines the role of coal consumption in the economic growth process for a panel of 15 emerging market economies. Specifically, the causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth is evaluated using a multivariate panel error correction model over the period 1980–2006. Heterogeneous panel cointegration tests indicate there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, coal consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force. The long-run elasticity estimates are positive and significant for both real gross fixed capital formation and the labor force; however, the elasticity estimate with respect to coal consumption is negative and significant. As discussed by Wolde-Rufael [39] and Apergis and Payne [4] this negative impact of coal consumption on real output in the long-run may be the consequence of the economic costs of carbon dioxide emissions on the environment outweigh the immediate economic benefit associated with coal usage on real output. The estimation of the panel error correction model shows there is both short- and long-run bidirectional causality between coal consumption and economic growth. However, the short-run causality results indicate that an increase in coal consumption has a negative impact on economic growth, a result that could be attributed to an inefficient and excessive use of coal. In this case, the feasibility of either increasing the efficient use of coal or reducing coal consumption should be assessed in the formulation of energy policy. For example, legislation that would restrict the growth of carbon dioxide emissions might provide an incentive to enhance efficiency or curb excessive coal consumption. Furthermore, greater use of sustainable coal technologies that permit carbon dioxide capture and storage may curtail the environmental consequences of excessive coal consumption. Similarly, the short-run causality tests also indicate that an increase in economic growth has a negative impact on coal consumption. This result suggests the emergence of alternative energy sources such as renewables may have rendered these economies less coal intensive over time.