جریان ورودی سرمایه انسانی و سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی به کشورهای در حال توسعه: شواهد تجربی جدید

Despite the dramatic increase in total foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to developing countries in the last few years, the bulk of the inflows has been directed to only a limited number of countries. It has been argued that developing countries might enhance their attractiveness as locations for FDI by pursuing policies that raise the level of local skills and build up human resource capabilities. Nevertheless, the empirical evidence in the literature in support of this recommendation for a large sample of developing countries is scant. This paper evaluates this argument in the light of the evolution in the structural characteristics of FDI and empirically tests the hypothesis that the level of human capital in host countries may affect the geographical distribution of FDI. The empirical findings are: (a) human capital is a statistically significant determinant of FDI inflows; (b) human capital is one of the most important determinants; and (c) its importance has become increasingly greater through time.

Since the early 1980s developing countries have significantly eased restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and the operations of transnational corporations (TNCs). This trend has become even more widespread during the 1990s. In fact, despite the absence of a multilateral framework for FDI, “unilateral, bilateral and regional efforts towards the liberalization of national FDI frameworks have led to a remarkable level of de facto convergence of government policy approaches towards FDI among countries from all regions” (UNCTAD, 1994, p. 286). For developing countries, FDI became especially important as a source of funding in the wake of the debt crisis, given the significant reduction in the flows of official and other private capital. In an environment with more vigorous capital flows, FDI is a means to balance loan and equity capital in private foreign capital inflows. FDI is also less volatile than other types of capital flows (Chuhan, Perez-Quiros, & Popper, 1996). FDI is not only a source of finance and employment. For developing country governments, FDI can also be a medium for acquiring skills, technology, organizational and managerial practices and access to markets. Moreover, the less developed a country is, the greater are usually the expectations it places on FDI to alleviate its resource and skills constraints. But, foreign investors are attracted to locations that offer appropriate combinations of locational advantages. Although total FDI inflows have spiralled in recent years, the bulk of the inflows has been directed to only a limited number of countries. This raises the issue of whether it is possible to identify a set of policies that might enhance the attractiveness of developing countries as locations for FDI. A necessary requirement is, therefore, for policy makers to be aware of the evolution in the structural characteristics of FDI and to fully understand the changing needs of TNCs in the light of their complex global integration strategies.1 In this context, this paper investigates the importance of human capital as a resource that can attract FDI to developing countries. Section 2 presents the growing quantitative relevance of FDI for these countries. Section 3 analyzes changes in the composition of FDI and in the strategies pursued by TNCs. Section 4 investigates whether the empirical evidence supports the view that human capital has a statistically significant influence on FDI inflows. Concluding comments are given in Section 5.

Developing country governments are pursuing policies to attract FDI. In line with several other studies, the empirical results in this paper confirm the importance of many of the usual determinants of FDI in developing countries. More specifically, the growth of domestic markets, a stable macroeconomic environment, liberalization policies, the availability of energy and a generally supportive business environment are significant explanations for FDI inflows. The availability/cost of labor is also a relevant factor. The contribution of this paper, however, is in highlighting the important role of human capital in regressions involving a large sample of developing countries. In this respect, the empirical results are novel and have wide-ranging policy implications. As a result of the adoption by TNCs of complex global integration strategies, a significant factor in influencing locational decisions is the presence of sophisticated, created assets in host countries. It is thus crucial—especially in a context of increasing competition for FDI—that developing countries formulate policies that improve local skills and build up their human resource capabilities (World Bank, 2000). This is necessary to raise not only the volume but also the quality and sophistication of the FDI that a country can attract. Countries that rely exclusively on low-cost low-skill labor or natural resources to attract FDI will find it difficult to induce FDI into high value-added industries and may suffer slower economic growth. Lall (1998) argues that, given minimum levels of skills and infrastructure, low labor costs may now matter only in a handful of low-technology activities, such as low-end garments, since semiconductors have become highly automated and capital intensive. Empirical analyses should always end with a word of caution. Although the econometric results appear robust to different specifications, it remains the case that the variables that have been used for human capital are only rather distant proxies for the quality of labor, which is what one would ideally like to measure. Moreover, as often in econometrics, it is extremely difficult to attach causal meaning to correlations among variables since omitted variables may distort the true relationship between dependent and explanatory variables. Finally, the empirical analysis has proceeded at a rather aggregate level. A more disaggregated analysis, e.g., at sectoral level, may yield important insights. The research agenda is long.