تجزیه و تحلیل تجربه رشد کره: استفاده از تحقیق و توسعه و مدل های رشد مبتنی بر سرمایه انسانی با جمعیت شناسی

This study analyzes the growth experience of Korea from a neo-classical growth perspective. Korean annual data for the period 1971–2002 are used to examine the quantitative importance of many key determinants of long-run growth. The investment rate, R&D, education, years of schooling, and financial liberalization policy, the size of government, and the age structure all these human education and capital features exert significant influence on growth. Our findings are also consistent with the view that Korea's high growth is attained by its high degree of adaptability to rapidly changing technology and its ability to exploit new opportunities. The rate of speed of per capita output towards its steady-state output is found to be high.

The original Solow growth theory was reported in 1956. Since then, we have seen the emergence of modified and endogenous growth theories (Jones, 1995a, Lucas, 1988 and Romer, 1986). New growth theories emphasize the role of human capital and R&D in the process of growth. The study by Barro in 1991 and, by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil in 1992 along with many other's empirical studies showed the capability to analyze growth behavior.1 Almost all the empirical studies used panel data or cross-country regressions. The heterogeneity of countries in the sample with regard to the conditions in economic developments and institutions raises severe problems of econometric methodology and limits to draw firm conclusions on important policy issues.2 This study takes a look at the relevance of neo-classical growth model from an empirical prospective, using Korea as an example. Over the past 4 decades, Korea has been transformed from an underdeveloped agricultural economy to a modern industrialized economy.3 It is misleading to explain this remarkable transformation in terms of the government policy of industrial targeting pursued from the 1960s. Although targeted industrial policy played a leading role, a solid supply of human capital and policies to open the economy and to promote competition made industrial targeting successful. This study seeks to apply neo-classical models of growth to the Korean growth experience from 1971 to 2002, thereby reducing the limitations of empirical studies which utilize cross-country samples. We utilize neo-classical growth models that incorporate the role of human capital and R&D. We make contributions in following areas. First, by explicitly linking between per worker output and per capita output, younger age dependency ratio and older and inactive dependency ratio enter the specifications for per capita output growth models. Second, we explicitly consider private investment in education and R&D. Third, we examine the effect of globalization on the explanation of growth. This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents econometric specification of economic growth we are interested in applying to Korea. Section 3 presents data sources and descriptions. Section 4 presents the main results of the estimation. Finally, section 5 summarizes and concludes.

The growth model explains Korea's growth reasonably well. This study provides evidence for endogenous growth theory which emphasizes the role of education- and R&D investment-based knowledge, in addition to physical capital. Our findings are also consistent with the view of assimilation theorists that Korea's high growth is attained by its high degree of adaptability to rapidly changing technology and its entrepreneurship and ability to exploit new opportunities via the rising educational attainment of its labor.32 The estimated speed of adjustment indicates that about 90% of the final adjustment took place within 1 year from the time an initial shock occurs. The high rate of adjustment may be considered a result from Korea being an open economy financially and the fact that the adjustment initiates from further below and more determinants of the steady-state output are included in the estimation. The implied value of capital's share of output, 0.08, we obtained in the determination of the level of per capita output, is much lower than the observed value of capital's share.33 This might suggest that Korea's physical capital and investment are under-utilized. The years of schooling of Korea's employed, households’ education expenditures, and R&D investment have been important in raising the knowledge and innovative quality of labor and contributed to the growth of per capita output. Financial liberalization has had a significant positive influence. The rise in the ratio of the government output to total output has been an adverse factor. The younger-age-dependency ratio and the older-age and inactive-dependency ratio are found to adversely affect growth. Korea experiences a rise in the older-age population and a fall in the younger-age population. The on-going change in the age structure is expected to lower the level of per capita output. To raise the level of per capita output in spite of a rise in the dependent population, one implication of our findings is that Korea needs to implement successful growth policies –investment in education, and R&D, as well as encouragement in reversing birth rates among young couples to avert declination of future growth in Korea. Knowledge is most powerful source of growth. The political process, the functioning of institutions including government, cultural sentiments and customs help to generate knowledge and thus have the ability to help or harm a country's long-term growth. Political, social structure and custom affects productivity, innovation, and many economic outcomes.34 It would be fruitful and intellectual challenges to analyze a more extended mechanism of economic growth and development with more information on social structure and institutions.