دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 18782
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

تغییرات جمعیت شناختی، سرمایه انسانی و رفاه

عنوان انگلیسی
Demographic change, human capital and welfare
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
18782 2012 14 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Review of Economic Dynamics, Volume 15, Issue 1, January 2012, Pages 94–107

ترجمه کلمات کلیدی
پیری جمعیت - سرمایه انسانی - نرخ بازگشت - توزیع رفاه -
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی
Population aging, Human capital, Rate of return, Distribution of welfare,
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  تغییرات جمعیت شناختی، سرمایه انسانی و رفاه

چکیده انگلیسی

Projected demographic changes in the U.S. will reduce the share of the working-age population. Analyses based on standard OLG models predict that these changes will increase the capital–labor ratio. Hence, rates of return to capital decrease and wages increase, which has adverse welfare consequences for current cohorts who will be retired when the rate of return is low. This paper argues that adding endogenous human capital accumulation to the standard model dampens these forces. We find that this adjustment channel is quantitatively important. The standard model with exogenous human capital predicts welfare losses up to 12.5%12.5% (5.6%5.6%) of lifetime consumption, when contribution (replacement) rates to the pension system are kept constant. These numbers reduce to approximately 8.7%8.7% (4.4%4.4%) when human capital can endogenously adjust.