خلاقیت و بحران : تاثیر کار شاغلین خلاق بر بیکاری منطقه ای

Over the past several years, we have witnessed the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression. In this paper, we seek to understand how regional occupational structures are associated with metropolitan areas that have rebounded (or have not felt the recession much at all) and those regions that have been unable to recover their economies. In particular, we analyze the impact of the creative class in comparison with other occupational groups. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment statistics from July 2007 to February 2011, we study the composition of 369 metropolitan areas to observe whether there are patterns in unemployment rates and distribution of occupational groups. We study these cities through five distinct periods during this time period: Stable, Crisis, Unemployment Expansion, Peak and Post-Peak. We find that having a strong concentration of the creative class going into the crisis is associated with lower unemployment rates throughout the studied period. Like the creative class, highly skilled human capital is associated with lower unemployment throughout the studied period but proves to be a less influential variable in our regression results.

Over the past several years, we have witnessed the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression. Yet some urban areas seem to have been impermeable or certainly quick to recover from the recession and have bounced back to almost pre-recession levels of employment. Yet on the other end of the spectrum, cities such as Detroit, Las Vegas and parts of Southern California are struggling to keep afloat, with massive foreclosures and unemployment. The economic crisis has been striking in its heterogeneous impact on urban fortunes. Are there economic dynamics that might explain regional responses and recovery from our economic crisis? Ostensibly, those regions most heavily dependent on service or tourist economies have certainly fared the worst, while those cities with more diverse economies have been more robust. Ironically, New York City and London have both been heavily dependent on tax revenues from the financial industry and yet they have been far less affected than urban areas seemingly removed from the crisis’ apex. Thus, we lack a straightforward explanation for regional economic robustness. Do conventional explanations for economic prosperity apply in the wake of the financial crisis? To what extent does the concentration of high-skilled human capital help mitigate times of economic upheaval? More controversially, and as the central question of this article, does the “creative class”, widely argued to determine long term prosperity, hold up in the wake of the crisis? Drawing from Florida, 2002a and Florida, 2002b premise, the creative class, like the presence of high-skilled human capital, ought to remain an important factor in upholding economic growth, as it offers diverse economic activities and workers that are, at least theoretically (Comunian, Faggian, & Li, 2010), able to transition into new jobs and are highly desirable for firms and industries. Critics of the creative class argument, however, might easily point out that the creative class still remains an elite rising tide that does not necessarily lift all boats and that its goods and services may not be in great demand during times of hardship or scarcity (Peck, 2005 and Pratt, 2011). The overarching goal of this article is to descriptively analyze the extent to which the creative class is a useful theory in times of crisis. This article is a first step in studying how the creative class influences regional and urban economic outcomes during times of strife as well as prosperity. By no means are we undertaking econometric analysis that might suggest causality. Instead, this article is a first look at the relationship between the creative class and unemployment during an economic downturn. Our primary purpose is to undertake a descriptive analysis of the research question. Using the natural experiment of the time period before, during and after the financial crisis, we seek to understand which economic conditions are associated with metropolitan areas that have rebounded (or have not felt the recession much at all) and those regions that have been unable to recover their economies. We use the creative class as our point of departure as it is one of the most widely cited and strongly debated theories on urban and regional prosperity. In particular, we look specifically at whether the theory of the “creative class” upholds under conditions of recession. Using the case of United States metro areas, we undertake a descriptive analysis to look at the impact of the creative class as defined by Florida, 2002a and Florida, 2002b in comparison with other occupational groups. As much of the study of the creative class has been done during times of prosperity, a study of this theory during times of economic decline is sorely needed. To what extent is the occupational-based framing of the workforce applicable under conditions of economic crisis? Our framework for the analysis employs the four different occupational sectors as drawn from Florida’s typology: creative, service, working and farming/fishing/forestry. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment statistics from July 2007 to February 2011, we conduct a descriptive analysis of the occupational composition of 369 metropolitan areas to observe whether there are patterns in unemployment rates and distribution across Florida’s occupational typology. We study these cities through five distinct periods during this time period: Stable, Crisis, Unemployment Expansion, Peak and Post-Peak. We caution that this work is both descriptive and a first step in testing the creative class theory under economic stress. We find that overall there is relatively stable unemployment through 1Q2008 with rapidly rising unemployment through 2009. Through 1Q2010 unemployment rises but at a slower pace, followed thereafter by stable or falling slightly unemployment.1 However, in studying the metros by population size, we find an unusual but consistent pattern: In the most populated 25 metropolitan areas, the top ten cities had a much less extreme crisis while the remaining 25 were the hardest hit of all metros. For the entire studied period, smaller metros do worse overall, and those cities with over 500,000 inhabitants fare the best. Based on the analysis, it appears that a strong concentration of the creative class going into the crisis is correlated with lower unemployment rates throughout the studied period whilst having a high concentration of the service or working class sectors is strongly related to higher unemployment (positive correlation to unemployment) but in different ways. Share of working class jobs is correlated with higher unemployment during the stable period while the service sector is associated with higher unemployment rates during the peak and post-peak period but negatively correlated to unemployment during the stable period. Like the creative class, highly skilled human capital is associated with lower unemployment throughout the studied period but a less influential variable in our regression results. This article is divided into four parts. We will first briefly discuss the germane literature with a particular focus on the extant literature dealing with human capital and the creative economy. We will then discuss our approach to studying United States metropolitan areas during the crisis. We report results on metropolitan areas prior to the crisis, during the crisis and in the aftermath of the most critical unemployment period. Finally, we will consider what our analysis might mean for regions as they recover from the peak of the financial crisis.

This article seeks to analyze the significance of the creative class on the economy during a time of crisis. While we establish a correlation between the creative class and economic robustness we are by no means undertaking an econometric analysis that might pinpoint causality. Our purpose is to take the first step to understanding the creative class in a wider economic context. While previous research has looked at its impact on regional and urban economies under normal conditions, we sought to understand how the creative class performs during and in the aftermath of the crisis. We were also interested in the extent to which these findings were comparable to other economic sectors along with the human capital measure. We find that, with regard to influence on unemployment, the creative class outperforms human capital and all other sectors throughout the studied period with one exception. In smaller places (under 100,000) the working class is more important than the creative class. In other words, lower populated places that were strong in trades and manufacturing weathered well during the stable period and the influence of the working class continued to negatively influence (i.e. reduce) unemployment throughout the crisis, expansion, peak and post-peak periods. While the working class sector is not the focus of this article, we think that the result deserves some discussion. First of all, working class jobs are more stable while the creative class has a more rotating labor pool (Florida, 2002a). Empirically, Stolarick (2011) finds on average 1 in 9 creative class workers changes jobs annually versus 1 in 30 working class employees. We speculate that the nature of industries that fall under the working class group may also delay rises in unemployment. Places with more trade workers and manufacturing were less likely to stop production abruptly because durable goods manufacturing take some time to slow down. Further, manufacturing processes (orders, keeping machines running, inventory, etc.) can be costly to stop. Fear of stagnation and union penalties for throttling back may mean (at least at the outset) that stopping and starting can be more expensive than maintaining status quo, thus reducing production might be a more circumspect decision. The results show that the service sector is associated with higher unemployment earlier, which we suspect reflects the type of jobs and products. Services are often a part of discretionary spending, thus more sensitive. Put another way, during a financial crisis, spending on entertainment and restaurants can stop immediately. Our findings raise as many questions as they answer. The biggest questions deal with the possibility that the results may be driven because of the underlying nature of the Floridian occupational taxonomy that has been used. The creative class results are striking and interesting but what dynamics are underpinning these results? Are more specific occupational groups better at weathering the crisis, and is the creative class fully or partially composed of those groups? Does city size and position within the hierarchy play a differential role (as found here) when more specific occupations are considered? In our future research, we are studying this topic in depth, considering a more “deconstructed” creative class (broken into occupational subgroups) to further investigate these relationships and refine these results. Overall, our results suggest that the creative class is an important positive influence during the financial crisis. We consider the explanations that may underpin this result. Creative jobs are inherently more diverse and empirically we know that diversity is greater with a larger creative share (working and service sectors are more homogeneous) (Currid-Halkett & Stolarick, 2011). By extension, increasing the share of the creative class takes away from service and implicitly increases occupational diversity. This shift in proportion increases economic fortitude should particular industries or occupations become vulnerable. Fundamentally, creative jobs are robust by virtue of what they produce – ideas and a hybrid of innovation, consumption and production (Florida, 2002a, Pratt, 2004 and Pratt, 2008; Scott, 2000). While scholars have long made this observation more generally about creativity and economic vitality, our results suggest that the trend continues even during times of economic hardship. In this respect, creativity is an intrinsic part of both maintaining and upholding economies, big and small and during both stable and these uncertain times.