تجزیه و تحلیل هزینه - منفعت بهبود یافته برای برنامه ریزی انتقال بازار محور ، چشم انداز اروپایی

This paper addresses the problem of transmission planning in interconnected power systems under the uncertainty of future generation parks and fast varying marginal production costs. The decision maker has to consider many different aspects during the definition of different transmission planning strategies that sometimes might even be contradicting. Major contributions are the incorporation of energy policy measurements in the evaluation process of candidate transmission plans and the inclusion of short- and long-term uncertainties. The proposed methodology, so-called C-TRAP, is based on a semi-dynamic heuristic approach that solves the social welfare maximization problem for several discrete steps considering different preferences for energy policy and transmission network reinforcements. The flexibility provided through the heuristic analysis is very important for decision makers in the new uncertain environment in power systems.

In the present fast evolving changing power systems environment many uncertainties appear. Thus, the transmission planning becomes more and more an exercise where many aspects have to be considered. On the way to a sustainable future power system the combination of environmental requirements, market structures, future generation and demand and network transmission capability is of vital importance. So far, the transmission network planning process has been identified as multi-criteria, multi-objective, multi-stage process (Alseddiqui and Thomas, 2006 and Escobar et al., 2004), while no environmental aspects have been considered and only few information is given specifically for the European interconnected system and its characteristics as a whole. In previous work (Papaemmanouil et al., 2010) generation and transmission models have been combined in a cost–benefit analysis in order to evaluate potential transmission expansion plans in the European interconnected system. Short-term indicators, i.e. avoided environmental costs (AECs) and avoided congestion costs (ACCs) due to additional transmission capacity had been compared to transmission lines investment costs. However, in this work long-term aspects, a detailed description of the identification of proposed candidate lines and an indicator for system adequacy analysis were missing. This paper comes to fill this gap, proposing an integrated methodology for coordinated transmission planning, called C-TRAP (Fig. 1). Full-size image (21 K) Fig. 1. Framework of the coordinated transmission planning (C-TRAP).

To conclude, a completed transmission planning takes into consideration many aspects that should build a clear picture of the impact of the investment on the whole system. This paper focuses on the impact on environmental costs, congestion costs and unserved load performing a sensitivity analysis. Six generation mix scenarios have been considered combined with stochastically chosen load variations on every network node, in order to calculate congestion probabilities of lines and probabilities of unserved load on the nodes. The final results are presented in 3-D diagrams showing the investment performance for different levels of increased transmission capacity and marginal production costs. The proposed methodology here, so-called C-TRAP, offers a platform to decision makers for a complete analysis of the transmission investment performance, providing information to environmental, congestion and availability benefits, when an interconnection is reinforced. Accordingly, transmission investment plans could be evaluated based on this improved cost–benefit analysis based on a semi-dynamic heuristic approach that takes into account societal, economic and availability standards.