افزایش دقت در پیش بینی گردش مالی داوطلبانه و بازنشستگی

The present research examines the differential validity of the facets of organizational commitment and job embeddedness to predict who will reenlist or retire from a branch of the armed services. We tested hypotheses with survey data from 1839 enlisted personnel in the U.S. Air Force. For personnel facing the decision to reenlist or separate, continuance commitment and organizational job embeddedness predicted reenlistment. For those eligible to retire, affective and normative commitment as well as organizational job embeddedness predicted who would reenlist rather than retire. However, unlike previous studies, for both criteria (reenlistment and retirement), people who were more embedded in their communities were more likely to voluntarily leave. This finding identifies an important boundary condition for job embeddedness theory.

A unique aspect of military service is the nature of the relationship between the employer and employee which clearly defines the period of employment contractually. This introduces predictable decision points for both parties. Further, given the significant penalties for early termination of contract, the likelihood of particular events precipitating leaving (e.g., what Lee and Mitchell (1994) describe as shock-driven turnover) at a time other than the conclusion of the contract is very low. Put differently, in the military context, though shocks may occur, there are significant contractual constraints on turnover such that more deliberate decision processes are likely to dominate the choice to leave the military. There are two main ways to voluntarily leave the military. First, one can simply not reenlist at the end of a contract period. Second, one can wait to become fully vested (i.e., stay in the military for 20 years to become eligible for retirement benefits) and retire. It is important to note at this point that both separation by not signing a new contract (fail to reenlist) and retirement are understudied criteria in turnover research (Hom, Leong, & Golubovich, 2010). While Hulin (1991) identifies retirement and voluntary turnover as related forms of withdrawal, Adams and Beehr (1998) argue that retirement should be treated as distinct. For this reason, Beehr (1986) has called for a better understanding of the individual and environmental factors specifically leading to retirement as a separate criterion. Additionally, many employees retiring from the military are relatively young and intend to pursue a second career after leaving. This fact further distinguishes this type of departure from traditional retirement models.In this study, we integrate four conceptual perspectives on turnover. Because comprehensive reviews of the turnover literature are readily available (Holtom et al., 2008, Hom et al., 2010 and Maertz and Campion, 1998), we do not repeat them here. However, we do introduce them briefly below. The early work of March and Simon (1958) laid out the predictors that dominated the field for decades: job satisfaction (the desirability of movement) and job alternatives (the ease of movement). Maertz and Campion (1998) summarize their review by stating that these two predictors overwhelmingly dominate the research landscape. Three decades of research on commitment demonstrates a clear link between organizational commitment and turnover ( Porter, Crampon, & Smith, 1976). Further research by Meyer and Allen (1991) refined our understanding of organizational commitment and demonstrated that it is composed of three components (affective, continuance and normative). Each component is negatively related to turnover ( Meyer, Stanley, Herscovitch, & Topolnytsky, 2002). Further, research has shown that although job satisfaction and organizational commitment are positively correlated with each other, they are separate constructs ( Meyer et al., 2002). Finally, job embeddedness ( Mitchell, Holtom, Lee, Sablynski, & Erez, 2001) has recently been demonstrated to be both conceptually and empirically distinct from other traditional turnover predictors and related to turnover. There are three key components of job embeddedness ( Mitchell et al., 2001). The first component is fit. Fit is how compatible the employee is with both the organization and the community. Links are the second component of embeddedness. These are the connections—both formal and informal—that an employee makes in both the organization and community. The final component of embeddedness is known as sacrifice and includes the perceived or real costs of leaving the organization and potentially leaving the community. In summary, job embeddedness captures the enmeshing effect of the six sub-dimensions discussed above (fit, links and sacrifice which apply to both the organization and community), each of which has been shown to be negatively related to turnover in prior research ( Mitchell et al., 2001).Hunt (1991) has noted that the military provides a rich setting for the study of human resource constructs due to its size, diversity of personnel and roles, as well as its global scope. During the course of a military career, an enlisted member has a number of decision points. Active members “enlist” or sign a contractual agreement with the Air Force for a set period of time (generally 4 years). At the end of the enlistment, the member may separate from the Air Force with no further obligation. The Air Force will move the individual (and family members) to the individual's home of record at no charge. If the individual has accrued at least 20 years of active duty service, that individual may retire from the Air Force and receive 50% of his or her base pay per month for the rest of his or her life. If he or she chooses to remain in the Air Force, this retirement percentage increases by 2.5% each year until reaching a maximum of 75% at the 30-year point. Thus, the marginal utility of staying after 20 years is much lower than it is before that point. Indeed, the average officer retires at about age 45 (Kilpatrick & Kilpatrick, 1979). Two key issues that may affect whether people reenlist or retire are relocation considerations and pensions.

Our findings highlight three major points that are relevant for both theory and practice. First, which predictors one uses matter. Facets of job embeddedness and organizational commitment added significantly to our understanding of why people leave over and above job satisfaction and perceived alternatives. Second, the criterion matters. The failure to re-sign a contract is different from many forms of voluntary leaving. Further, retirement at the end of 20 years and the starting of a new career is different from other types of retirement. Third, the context matters (Johns, 2006). The context in which one has contractual and retirement time periods (e.g. military, fire, police, teachers) is different from other organizational settings. It is only a more nuanced understanding of all three factors that will increase our ability to predict and influence employee retention.