رجحان زمان و اهمیت پس انداز برای دوران بازنشستگی

This study models the importance respondents place on saving for retirement as a function of time preference using a sample of 6812 undergraduate and graduate students. Individual time preference is measured by comparing dollar values over time and through a combination of intertemporal behaviors that may be the most theoretically appropriate measurement of the discount rate for utility over time. Results show strong correlations among decision making domains that involve time discounting. Time preference measured by comparing dollar amounts across time proves a much weaker predictor than a combination of intertemporal behaviors measured either as a linear scale or as factors. In multivariate models, a factor of intertemporal preventive health behaviors is a stronger predictor of the importance of saving for retirement than all other explanatory variables including age, race, parental income, gender, GPA, and college major.

Across all income and education levels, investors who value retirement as a savings goal are more likely to participate in 401(k) plans, more likely to hold other retirement accounts, and more likely to invest directly or indirectly in equities (Pence, 2002). Younger respondents who indicate a willingness to save and plan are far more likely to have greater wealth later in life (Hurst, 2003), and those who have thought about retirement do in fact accumulate greater wealth over time (Ameriks et al., 2002). Retirement saving early in life is motivated by the desire to increase consumption decades in the future. This intertemporal tradeoff suggests a theoretical relation between the economic construct of time preference and a desire to save for retirement. Models of financial resource allocation over the life cycle predict an inverse relation between individual time preference and wealth accumulation (Bernheim et al., 2001). Individual time preference is an intriguing predictor of retirement savings behavior if the construct can be measured accurately. Although the time preference of an investor is difficult to estimate empirically, there is some evidence that other intertemporal behaviors that involve time preference, such as smoking and exercise, are associated with wealth accumulation over time (Lusardi, 2003). This paper uses a large data set (N = 6812) of college students to test the predictive capability of four different measures of individual time preference on the willingness to save for retirement. The results provide evidence that intertemporal health behaviors are strongly related to the intention to save for retirement. Correlations between behaviors outside the domain of financial decisions can also provide insight into observed relations between financial decisions and health outcomes.

The rate at which individuals substitute utility over time is theoretically related to the willingness to save for retirement. Empirical support, however, has been lacking, in large part due to the difficulty in accurately measuring time preference. Using a sample of 6812 students, this study provides the first strong empirical evidence that time preference for money, measured using log-transformed numerical dollar comparison, is a significant predictor of the importance a respondent places on saving for retirement. This study also demonstrates that behaviors guided by intertemporal utility substitution may serve as a more accurate measure of individual time preference for utility than the previously relied upon numerical measures of time preference. A scale of eight behaviors that involve a tradeoff of present and future utility is found to explain a larger proportion of variance in the importance of saving for retirement than the traditional numerical scale of time preference. When the scale of eight behaviors is subject to a factor analysis, two constructs that mirror the concepts of sensation seeking and time preference emerge that predict an even larger proportion of the variance in the importance of retirement saving.