موافقتنامه تجاری منطقه ای اقیانوس آرام/ آسیا: یک مطالعه تجربی

At the same time as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) have been encouraging trade liberalized, there has been a proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). These RTAs also aim to reduce trade barriers, but they do so it in a preferential way. There is continued debate as to whether such RTAs are an effective way of achieving free trade, or if increased trade among members causes less trade with non-member countries? If RTAs increase total trade, this is known as ‘trade creation’, whereas if the extra trade occurs at the expense of non-members, this is called ‘trade diversion’. Trade creation implies improved welfare, whereas ‘trade diversion’ may adversely affect welfare. This paper examines five different RTAs using a gravity model to see if they have been trade creating or trade diverting. Annual data from 26 countries covering five RTAs in the Asia and Pacific region for the years 1980–2000 was used.

This paper addresses the question of whether Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) enhance welfare. This is examined by using a gravity model to analyse the effect the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN),1 Australian and New Zealand Closer Economic Relations (CER), the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Southern Cone Common Market (MERCOSUR) and the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA) have had on the trade of both members and non-members of these RTAs. In the previous literature the gravity model is usually used to examine only one or two RTAs at a time. This study is unusual in that a comparable method has been used to look at five different RTAs.

This study uses a gravity model to examine bilateral trade involving five trading blocs, with data from 26 countries from 1980 to 2000. The estimated coefficients from the basic gravity model show that GDP, population, distance between trading partners, as well as cultural similarity (a common language) and physical area explain much cross country trade. The study also uses some price variables, namely the real exchange rate and taxes and finds that the empirical results line up with prior expectations. That is, real exchange rate movements had the expected affects, as depreciations encouraged exports and discouraged imports. With regard to taxes, the results suggest that taxation decreases bilateral trade.