افزایش تجزیه میزان انتشار کربن درچین از رشد اقتصادی : تجزیه و تحلیل اقتصادی و پیامدهای سیاسی

As the world’s second largest carbon emitter, China has long been criticized as a “free-rider” benefiting from other countries’ efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but not taking responsibility for its own emissions. China has been singled out as one of the major targets at the subsequent negotiations after the Kyoto meeting. By analyzing the historical contributions of interfuel switching, energy conservation, economic growth and population expansion to China’s CO2 emissions during 1980–97, this article clearly demonstrates that the above criticism is unjustified. Moreover, given the fact that the role of China is an issue of perennial concern at the international climate change negotiations, the article envisions some efforts and commitments that could be expected from China until its per capita income catches up with the level of middle-developed countries. By emphasizing the win-win strategies, these efforts and commitments are unlikely to jeopardize China’s economic development and, at the same time, would give the country more leverage at the international climate change negotiations subsequent to the Buenos Aires meeting.

China is the world’s most populous country and largest coal producer and consumer. At present, it contributes 13.5% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which makes it the world’s second largest emitter of CO2, after the United States, according to the World Energy Council (see Table 1). China’s share in global CO2 emissions is expected to increase and is likely to exceed that of the United States by 2020, if the current trend of economic development in China continues World Bank, 1994 and Energy Information Administration, 1999. In the face of a potentially serious global climate change problem, Annex I countries 1 finally committed themselves to legally binding emissions targets and timetables for reducing their greenhouse gas emissions in December 1997, at a meeting in Kyoto, Japan. Under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), these industrialized countries together must reduce their emissions of six greenhouse gases by at least 5% below 1990 levels over the commitment period 2008–2012, with the European Union (EU), the United States and Japan required to reduce their emissions of such gases by 8%, 7% and 6% respectively (UNFCCC, 1997). The Protocol will become effective once it is ratified by at least 55 parties whose CO2 emissions represent at least 55% of the total from Annex I countries in the year 1990.

Since China has made no concrete commitments, it has been criticized as a “free-rider” benefiting from other countries’ efforts to abate greenhouse gas emissions but not taking responsibilities of its own. This article is devoted to examining whether the above criticism holds up by analyzing the historical contributions of interfuel switching, energy conservation, economic growth and population expansion to China’s CO2 emissions during 1980–97. Such an analysis clearly indicates that China has made a significant contribution to reducing global CO2 emissions, although none of these carbon savings has resulted from conscious domestic climate mitigation policies. Moreover, given the fact that the role of China is an issue of perennial concern at the international climate change negotiations, the article envisions some plausible strategies that China might take subsequent to the Buenos Aires meeting.