غیر هسته ای، کربن پایین، یا هر دو؟ مورد تایوان

The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan has renewed debates on the safety of nuclear power, possibly hurting the role of nuclear power in efforts to limit CO2 emissions. I develop a dynamic economy-wide model of Taiwan with a detailed set of technology options in the power sector to examine the implications of adopting different carbon and nuclear power policies on CO2 emissions and the economy. Without a carbon mitigation policy, limiting nuclear power has a small economic cost for Taiwan, but CO2 emissions may increase by around 4.5% by 2050 when nuclear is replaced by fossil-based generation. With a low-carbon target of a 50% reduction from year 2000 levels by 2050, the costs of cutting CO2 emissions are greatly reduced if both carbon sequestration and nuclear expansion were viable. This study finds that converting Taiwan's industrial structure into a less energy-intensive one is crucial to carry out the non-nuclear and low-carbon environment.