سرمایه گذاری خارجی، سرمایه انسانی و رشد بخش تولید در سنگاپور

Foreign investment has been long regarded as the main driver of Singapore's manufacturing sector growth. By making use of annual data for the period 1980–2005, this paper argues that in addition to foreign investment, human capital is also playing a significant role in foresting manufacturing sector growth in Singapore. Empirical analysis shows that foreign investment, human capital and value added in manufacturing are cointegrated. The paper also argues that continued growth into the future requires further diversification of the manufacturing sector and increased spending on R&D and advanced education.

Until 2003, the performance of Singaporean economy in the post-Asian crisis period was well below its pre-Asian crisis level. However, an increase in domestic demand, growth in the US economy and early signs of recovery in the Japanese economy combined with the recent increase in the price of oil have contributed to strong growth in Singapore in 2005 and 2006. While the economy has registered strong growth in recent years, rising unemployment and shrinking profit margins have increased hardship faced by the general population.1 The national saving rate registered a steep decline in 1998–1999 and 2001–2002. It is interesting to note that Baharumshah, Thanoon, and Rashid (2003) appear to suggest that the savings rate in Singapore has not greatly influenced its economic growth. The manufacturing sector has long been regarded as the main driver of Singapore's impressive economic growth. Prior to the emergence of China as a major supplier of manufactured goods, the Singaporean manufacturing sector was facing stiff competition from regional economies such as Malaysia and Thailand. In response to increased competition and rising relative labour cost, Singapore took steps to move away from the production of low-value-added manufactured goods to high-value-added manufactured goods. At the same time, the Singaporean government significantly increased its spending on research and development which contributed to a steep increase in the number of research scientists and engineers (up from 4329 in 1990 to 21,338 in 2005).2 The average share of manufacturing in Singapore's GDP from 2000 to 2006 has been approximately 25%. However, the manufacturing sector is not well diversified. Fig. 1 shows that more than 50% of the manufacturing sector output consists of just two industries: (i) electronic products and components and (ii) refined petroleum.3Fig. 1 shows that the share of electronic products and components has been declining since 2001, whereas the opposite is true for refined petroleum.A rapid increase in China's export of manufactured goods has implications for Singaporean manufacturing sector. This paper attempts to examine the performance of Singaporean manufacturing sector. Unlike the existing studies, this paper focuses on the real value added of Singaporean manufacturing establishments. Since registering a steep decline in 2001, the value added has been steadily rising. While the contribution of foreign investment to Singapore's economic growth in recent years appears to have significantly declined, the manufacturing sector still relies heavily on foreign investment.4 A number of studies, including Lucas (1988) and Romer (1990), have highlighted the importance of human capital in the process of economic growth. However, few available studies have attempted to examine the impact of human capital on Singapore's manufacturing sector growth. Up until the 1970s, Singaporean manufactured exports consisted largely of low-value-added labour intensive goods. During the 1980s, the Singaporean manufacturing sector moved towards the production of higher value-added goods. Production of such goods requires significant amount of physical as well as human capital. The main aim of this paper is to empirically examine the impact of foreign investment and human capital on Singapore's manufacturing sector value added.5 Statistical analysis based on Johansen's method shows that value added in manufacturing, foreign investment and human capital are cointegrated (i.e., a long-run relationship exists among these variables). This suggests that Singaporean government needs to develop policies that will ensure that foreign as well as human capital remains available to the manufacturing sector in the future in sufficient quantity. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. The next section contains empirical investigation involving real value added in manufacturing, employment, real foreign investment and real human capital. The last section contains concluding remarks and policy implications.

Since the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998, Singapore's economy has gone through some periods of difficulty—the economic growth rate was negative in 2001 and below 4% in 2002 and 2003. This can be attributed to weakness in the US economy as well as the lack of growth in the Japanese economy. The Singaporean economic growth is highly dependent on its manufacturing sector, which heavily relies on foreign investment. This paper argues that in addition to foreign investment, human capital is also playing a significant role in foresting Singaporean manufacturing sector growth. Statistical analysis presented in this paper shows that human capital, foreign investment and value added in manufacturing are cointegrated. The estimated long-run relationship suggests that adjustment to long-run equilibrium takes place at a fairly fast rate. Given the small size of the domestic economy and a declining saving rate, it is likely that the Singaporean manufacturing sector will remain dependent on foreign investment at least in the near future. Since the early 1990s, there has been a significant increase in spending on R&D in Singapore, which provides some preliminary foundations for future development. However, more needs to be done. At present, private firms are not spending much on developing intangible assets such as human capital. Private sector spending on intangible assets is approximately 9% of private non-residential investment (MAS, 2006). Increased spending on R&D and advanced education and training are also likely to contribute to increase in the supply of human capital which will help Singapore to gain comparative advantage in higher value-added human capital-intensive goods. Singaporean manufacturing sector is facing stiff competition from China. In order retain its market share, Singapore needs to further diversify its manufacturing export base. Finally, the relative size of the services sector in Singapore remains well below the size of the same sector in Hong Kong.