تعیین کننده های کلان اقتصادی نوسانات آتی کالا: شواهد از بازارهای چینی و هند

We examine the macroeconomic determinants of the volatility of commodity futures (including agricultural commodity futures, metal futures and oil futures) in two emerging commodity markets – China and India. The macroeconomic variables used include both domestic and international macroeconomic variables that gauge economic environment, monetary policy and financial market information. We use a recently proposed GARCH-MIDAS model which jointly incorporates the daily price volatility and low-frequency macroeconomic variables. The model decomposes the volatility series into short- and long-run components, thereby enabling us to test whether the macroeconomic variables can determine the long-run variance. We find that there exists a long-run volatility component in the commodity futures, and most of the tested low-frequency macroeconomic variables are positively related to the long-run variance of commodity futures. Our results suggest that both domestic and international macroeconomic information plays an important role in determining the price volatility of the emerging commodity futures.