پیش بینی سناریو ظرفیت تولید زغال سنگ چین بر اساس مدل پویایی سیستم

Given the primary status of China’s coal in the energy structure, the scientific prediction of China’s coal production capacity (CPC) is of great significance to the orderly exploitation and use of coal resources and emission-reduction policy-making. This paper proposes a system dynamic (SD) model to forecast the change of China’s CPC in three scenarios – Baseline as Usual Scenario (BUS), Policy Regulation Scenario (PRS) and Strengthening Policy Scenario (SPS). Results show that: (1) SD model performs well in simulating the historical data and has a remarkable consistency between model behavior and actual situation. (2) Because of the continuous economic growth, China’s coal demand and carbon dioxide emissions will continue increasing and not peak by the year 2020 in the three scenarios, although the energy efficiency and energy consumption structure have actually improved. However, the expected goal of China’s carbon dioxide emission reduction is fully achieved in both the PRS and the SPS. (3) In the PRS, China’s coal production and demand in the year 2020 will be 4.334 and 3.852 billion tons, respectively. The relative overproduction appears to be aggravated, and the “supply-over-demand” situation in the coal market will not change noticeably. (4) China’s CPC will reach 5.144, 4.635 and 4.492 billion tons per year by the year 2020 in the BUS, the PRS and the SPS, respectively. China’s coal overcapacity will continue and face a severe challenge in the future. (5) The gap between coal supply and demand tends to be greater in the PRS and the SPS, and the PRS is considered to be the most conducive scenario to control China’s CPC because this scenario is consistent with China’s national circumstances. Finally, for abating the amount of China’s CPC, some suggestions are given from the perspective of supply-side reform in China’s coal industry.