تاثیر عدم قطعیت قیمت نفت در بازارهای سهام خاورمیانه و آفریقا

This paper investigates whether the implied crude oil volatility index (OVX), a forward-looking measure of oil market uncertainty published by Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), impacts the realized volatility of Middle East and African stock markets. Using an extended version of the GARCH model, we show that the oil market uncertainty has substantial effects on the realized volatility of most of the markets under study. Our findings also reveal that, even after controlling for the effect of the implied volatility index of S & P 500 (VIX), the impact of the OVX on the Middle East and African equity markets still holds for almost half of the markets considered. Additionally, the application of the GARCH-jump model shows that stock returns of majority of the sampled markets are sensitive to the fluctuations occurring in the implied oil volatility index and that time-varying jumps do exist in the stock returns. Thus, the market participants' anticipation of the future oil market uncertainty is an important factor explaining the returns and volatilities of the Middle East and African equity markets.