مدلسازی ریسک داخلی بخاری آبگرمکن خانگی با استفاده از شبیه سازی مونت کارلو برای منطقه ساحلی هندوستان

One of the key barriers to diffusion of domestic solar water heater in India is its high capital cost. Hence, there is a perception among people that it is not economically viable. The objective of this paper is to check the validity of this perception using net present value as a tool. An explicit formula has been developed from first principle to calculate the net present value of a domestic solar water heater which can be used globally. Scenario analysis has been conducted taking three scenarios: current, pessimistic and optimistic, to understand the spread in net present value. Taking probability of each scenario, expected net present value is calculated. The next objective is to go a further step to simulate using Monte Carlo simulation to attach a probability value with the net present value. Monte Carlo simulation model has been developed for risk assessment of solar water heaters. A range of values of all input variables have been considered assuming a normal distribution curve and based upon that a probability distribution curve of net present value is obtained. It was found that solar water heater is a viable option for east-coastal region of India.