در پویایی بدهی های حاکم در چین: پایداری و تغییر ساختاری

The dynamics of public debt are an important determinant of the macroeconomic environment of an economy and of the investment climate in the private sector. There have been concerns recently about the sustainability of debt in China, given the surge in the fiscal deficit in the last few years that has aided economic activity. This paper aims to shine some light on the dynamics of public debt in the Chinese economy given the risk of a debt crisis, taking nonlinearities and structural breaks into account. Our results show that caution needs to be exercised as there was a clear trend in 2014 towards an unsustainable path in the debt-to-GDP ratio.