مصرف زغال سنگ و رشد اقتصادی: شواهد از یک پانل از کشورهای OECD

This study examines the relationship between coal consumption and economic growth for 25 OECD countries within a multivariate panel framework over period 1980–2005. The Larsson et al. (2001) panel cointegration test indicates there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, coal consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force. The respective coefficients for real gross fixed capital formation and the labor force are positive and statistically significant whereas the coefficient for coal consumption is negative and statistically significant. The results of the panel vector error correction model reveal bidirectional causality between coal consumption and economic growth in both the short- and long-run; however, the bidirectional causality in the short-run is negative.

It is well documented that coal is in global abundance and the most economical of fossil fuels. As such, coal has been considered a reliable energy source. Moreover, the political instability of some major oil producing countries and corresponding volatility of oil prices has resulted in a greater reliance among industrialized countries on secure domestically produced energy sources such as coal. However, the reliance on coal has generated concerns over the environmental consequences of its use in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. Such concerns have resulted in international actions such as the Kyoto Protocol to curb greenhouse gas emissions, a substitution toward alternative energy sources for electricity generation, and the promotion of renewable energy sources and sustainable development initiatives through various government tax credits and subsidy programs. In light of the changing energy composition mix toward alternative energy sources, further investigation of the implications of coal consumption for economic growth is relevant in the broader discussion of the current and future economic and environmental issues surrounding the world’s energy supply. To this end, this study will examine the implications of coal consumption for economic growth among OECD countries which comprise approximately 35% of coal consumption worldwide. Specifically, the study extends the existing literature on the causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth on several fronts. First, the study will include a larger set of countries in the analysis than previous studies; a sample of 25 OECD countries is used in the analysis.1 Second, nearly half of the published studies on the causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth, as discussed in Section 2, have been conducted within a bivariate framework. However, a shortcoming of bivariate analysis is the possibility of omitted variable bias (Lütkepohl, 1982). Recognizing the omitted variable problem, this study examines the relationship between coal consumption and economic growth within a multivariate framework by including measures of capital and labor. Third, with the exception of the studies by Hu and Lin (2008), Sari et al. (2008), and Wolde-Rufael (2010), the sign and magnitude of the respective coefficients will be discussed in relation to the various hypotheses on the coal consumption–growth nexus. Fourth, while previous studies of the coal consumption–growth nexus have focused on time series techniques to infer the causal relationship, this study will utilize panel cointegration techniques. While we cannot overlook the merits of time series techniques, the main disadvantage of these techniques is that such approaches do not take into consideration the presence of heterogeneity among the economies included in the sample under investigation. This study employs panel cointegration techniques which take into account the presence of heterogeneity in the estimated parameters and dynamics across countries. Furthermore, the panel unit root and cointegration tests will provide additional power by combining the cross-section and time series data while allowing for heterogeneity across countries (Harris and Tzavalis, 1999). Section 2 discusses the hypotheses related to the causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth along with a summary of the previous studies on the causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth. Section 3 discusses the data, methodology, and empirical results. Concluding remarks are given in Section 4.

While coal has been a reliable energy source in many countries investigation of the relationship between coal consumption and economic growth is pertinent both in terms of the economic and environmental consequences of its continued usage. Specifically, this study tests the causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth within the context of a multivariate panel error correction model for 25 OECD countries over period 1980–2005. First, the Larsson et al. (2001) panel cointegration test indicates there is a unique long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, coal consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force. Though the long-run elasticity estimates are positive and statistically significant for real gross fixed capital formation and the labor force, the elasticity estimate for coal consumption is negative and statistically significant. This negative impact of coal consumption on real output in the long-run may be the result of inefficient and excessive use of coal as well as the possibility that the immediate economic benefit associated with the use of coal is outweighed by the economic costs imposed on the environment by carbon dioxide emissions. Second, the estimation of panel error correction model reveals there is both short- and long-run bidirectional causality between coal consumption and economic growth, which lends support for the feedback hypothesis. However, the short-run causality results indicate that an increase in coal consumption has a negative impact on economic growth. In this case, policymakers should explore the feasibility of either increasing the efficient use of coal or reducing coal consumption. For example, legislation that would restrict the growth of carbon dioxide emissions might provide an incentive to enhance efficiency or curb excessive coal consumption. Furthermore, greater use of sustainable coal technologies that permit carbon dioxide capture and storage may reduce the environmental costs upon on the economy of excessive coal consumption. Similarly, an increase in economic growth has a negative impact on coal consumption which might suggest that an economy may be less coal intensive, as alternative energy sources are employed such as renewable energy. The use of government tax credits and subsidies for the production and use of sustainable alternative energy sources may provide the needed incentive for both producers and consumers to substitute away from coal to more sustainable energy sources over time. This study by no means settles the concerns surrounding the use of coal in relation to its impact on economic growth and the environment. Future research can be pursued along several avenues. First, an analysis of non-OECD countries, in particular, the emerging Asian markets in which coal consumption and carbon dioxide emission levels are among the highest in the world would be beneficial. Second, following the work of Coondoo and Dinda (2002) and Dinda (2004), among others, the incorporation of carbon dioxide emissions within the modeling of the coal consumption–growth nexus may provide further insight on the environmental consequences of coal usage. Third, the examination of the coal consumption–growth relationship within a non-linear framework may be informative with respect to the threshold dynamics of coal consumption and growth across different regimes (Hu and Lin, 2008).