تفسیر رابطه پویا بین مصرف انرژی و رشد اقتصادی: شواهد تجربی از روسیه

Research on the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth is a fundamental topic for energy policy making and low-carbon economic development. Russia proves the third largest energy consumption country in the world in recent years, while little research has shed light upon its energy consumption issue till now, especially its energy–growth nexus. Therefore, this paper empirically investigates the dynamic nexus of the two variables in Russia based on the state space model. The results indicate that, first of all, Russia's energy consumption is cointegrated with its economic growth in a time-varying way though they do not have static or average cointegration relationship. Hence it is unsuitable to merely portrait the nexus in an average manner. Second, ever since the year of 2000, Russia's energy efficiency has achieved much more promotion compared with that in previous decades, mainly due to the industrial structure adjustment and technology progress. Third, among BRIC countries, the consistency of Russia's energy consumption and economic growth appears the worst, which suggests the complexity of energy–growth nexus in Russia. Finally, there exists bi-directional causality between Russia's energy consumption and economic growth, though their quantitative proportional relation does not have solid foundation according to the cointegration theory.

It has been universally acknowledged that Russian Federation proves a key energy producing country, especially with abundant oil and natural gas resources. In 2009, the Russian primary energy production ranks the third in the world. Specifically, the proved reserves of oil and natural gas accounts for 5.6% and 23.7% of the total, respectively, and the production of oil and natural gas accounts for 12.9% and 17.6% of the total, respectively (BP, 2010). However, besides the role of a key energy producing country, Russia actually is also a giant energy consuming country. In 2009, its primary energy consumption also ranks the third of the world with the share of 5.7%, larger than that of the Southern and Central American region (5.0%) and the African continent (3.2%) and only less than that of the US and China (BP, 2010). Additionally, it is well-known that energy acts as the very basis for economic growth, and economic growth cannot sustain without sufficient energy consumption; hence, intuitively, energy consumption should maintain a long-term equilibrium with economic growth. Does this logic hold in Russia? Does the effort for energy saving in Russia affect its economic growth? Does the nexus of energy consumption and economic growth in Russia differ from that in other BRIC countries?1 Little attention has been paid to these questions up to now, which are not in accord with the key position of Russia in the whole world. Under this circumstance, this paper aims to study the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Russia, not only their quantitative proportional relation but also their interactive directions, i.e., causality, and compare the relationship with that in other BRIC countries, so as to provide some insights for the energy-saving policy making in Russia. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents an overview of the existing literature regarding the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Section 3 explains the empirical approach and data definition. Section 4 gives the empirical analysis results and Section 5 concludes the research.

From the discussions above, we may see that the state space model appears more suitable for capturing the dynamic nexus of Russia's energy consumption and economic growth, while the traditional constant parameter model may cause spurious regression and proves insufficient to describe the complexity between the two variables. To sum up, some findings and policy implications are identified as follows. First of all, Russia's energy consumption is cointegrated with its economic growth in a time-varying way though they do not have static or average cointegration relationship. Hence it is unsuitable to merely portrait the nexus in an average manner. Specifically, from 1970 to 2008, Russia's energy–growth nexus experiences a sharp decline in the former Soviet Union period and then sees a steady increase, followed by a gradual decline, which reflects the energy efficiency evolution in Russia and is in accord with its industrial structure adjustment. Second, ever since the year of 2000, Russia's economy has witnessed a recovery growth, and the government has started to take effective measures to curb energy intensity and reduce carbon emissions. As a result, the energy efficiency in the country has achieved much promotion. Behind the fact, two important drivers, among others, are identified, i.e., the increase of fiscal revenue resulting from oil and natural gas price hikes provides solid foundation for advanced energy-saving technology investment and the share of Services increases a lot compared with that in the previous decades. Third, compared with other BRIC countries, the consistency of Russia's energy consumption and economic growth appears the worst. This also indicates the complexity of energy–growth nexus and energy saving policy making in Russia. Finally, there exists bi-directional causality between Russia's energy consumption and economic growth, though their average quantitative proportional relation does not have solid foundation according to the traditional cointegration theory. These features can be adopted when energy-saving policies are made. As for the future work, to our knowledge, since Russia has signed the Kyoto Protocol in 2004, and as a large country for energy consumption, its global responsibility for energy saving and carbon emission reduction have become a heated topic all over the world, therefore research on the energy-saving modes and potential as well as the low-carbon development path in Russia should be important directions in the future.