تخمین پنل برای تولید CO2، مصرف انرژی، رشد اقتصادی، درجه باز بودن تجاری و شهرنشینی کشورهای تازه صنعتی شده

This paper empirically examines the dynamic causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for the panel of newly industrialized countries (NIC) using the time series data for the period 1971–2007. Using four different panel unit root tests it is found that all panel variables are integrated of order 1. From the Johansen Fisher panel cointegration test it is found that there is a cointegration vector among the variables. The Granger causality test results support that there is no evidence of long-run causal relationship, but there is unidirectional short-run causal relationship from economic growth and trade openness to carbon dioxide emissions, from economic growth to energy consumption, from trade openness to economic growth, from urbanization to economic growth and from trade openness to urbanization. It is found that the long-run elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to energy consumption (1.2189) is higher than short run elasticity of 0.5984. This indicates that over time higher energy consumption in the newly industrialized countries gives rise to more carbon dioxide emissions as a result our environment will be polluted more. But in respect of economic growth, trade openness and urbanization the environmental quality is found to be normal good in the long-run.

The increase of greenhouse gases emissions is a major threat to the environment of the world. The rapid economic growth and expansion of the process of industrialization of newly industrialized countries (NIC) impel intensive use of energy and other natural resources as a result more residues and wastes are being released in nature that could lead to environmental degradation. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is regarded to be the main source of greenhouse effect and has captured great attention in the recent years. Most of the CO2 emissions come from fossil fuels consumption such as coal, oil and gas. The Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report of 2007 reveals that over the last three decades, GHG emissions have increased by an average of 1.6% per year1 with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels at a rate of 1.9% per year. The CO2 emissions from energy consumption are rapidly increasing in NIC in recent years compare to other societies. The amount of CO2 emissions of nine NIC namely Brazil, China, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey to world CO2 emissions from energy consumption in 1980 was 13.90% and in 2009 it became 37.35%, which indicates remarkable cumulative increase of 2.69 times. The amount of CO2 emissions of nine NIC to world CO2 emissions from energy consumption over a period of time is shown with the following Fig. 1.2

This paper attempts to empirically examine the short-run and long-run causal relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for the panel of newly industrialized countries using the time series data for the period 1971–2007. Also this study attempts to examine the new approach which is proposed by Narayan and Narayan (2010). They proposed that if the long-run elasticity is lower than the short-run elasticity, this is equivalent to lower carbon dioxide emissions as it increases the value of the respective variable. Before testing for any causal relationship among the variables within a VAR model structure, at the first stage panel unit root tests and at the second stage panel cointegration analysis are conducted. Four different panel unit root tests, Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC, 2002), Im, Peasaran and Shin (IPS, 2003), Maddala and Wu (1999) and Choi (2006) tests are applied. These tests results support that all the panel variables are integrated of order one. The Johansen Fisher panel cointegration test results support that all the panel variables are cointegrated. Unidirectional short-run causal relationships are found from economic growth and trade openness to carbon dioxide emissions, from economic growth to energy consumption from trade openness to economic growth, from urbanization to economic growth and also from trade openness to urbanization but there is no evidence of long-run panel causal relationship among the variables. It is found that the long-run elasticity of CO2 emissions with respect to energy consumption (1.2189) is higher than short run elasticity of 0.5984. This indicates that the environmental quality is not found to be good in respect of energy consumption over time. This means that over time higher energy consumption in the panel of newly industrialized countries gives rise to more CO2 emissions as a result our environment will be polluted more. The variable economic growth supports the Narayan and Narayan (2010) new approach for this panel. It is also found that the variables trade openness and urbanization have negative significant impacts on carbon emissions. Thus in respect of economic growth, trade openness and urbanization the environmental quality is found to be normal good in the long-run. Among 9 NIC, the minimum time is required for Mexico and maximum time is required for Turkey to reach the long-run equilibrium. It is found that the long-run as well as short-run energy consumption has significant positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions, implies that due to expansion of the production of industrial output for rapid economic development the NIC countries are consuming more energy, which put pressure on the environment leading to more emissions, thus it is very essential to apply some sorts of pollution control actions to the whole panel in respect of energy consumption. It is found that the economic growth and trade openness cause the carbon dioxide emissions. This implies that in the absence of energy conservation policies due to the economic development these countries consume more energy as a result the environment will be more polluted. Since for this panel the variable energy consumption does not Granger cause economic growth, thus the panel can apply some sorts of pollution control actions in respect of energy consumption without forgoing economic growth. From the analytical results it can be concluded that the following policies should be implemented to the newly industrialized countries to control carbon dioxide emissions. The newly industrialized countries need to embrace more energy conservation policies in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and they should consider strict environmental and energy policies. The UN can introduce tax system on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions for the whole panel of NIC to reduce carbon dioxide emission. The research and investment in clean energy should be an integral part of the process of controlling the carbon dioxide emissions and should find alternative sources of energy to oil. The NIC can use solar energy as the substitute of oil. Thus implementing the environmental and energy policies and also reconsidering the strict energy policies the newly industrialized countries can control carbon dioxide emissions, as a result our environment will be free from pollution and millions of peoples can save themselves from the effects of natural disasters.