روابط علی بین مصرف انرژی، سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و رشد اقتصادی: شواهد تازه از مدل های معادلات همزمان پویا

This paper examines the interrelationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth using dynamic panel data models in simultaneous-equations for a global panel consisting of 65 countries. The time component of our dataset is 1990–2011 inclusive. To make the panel data analysis more homogenous, we also investigate this interrelationship for a number of sub-panels which are constructed based on the income level of countries. In this way, we end up with three income panels; namely, high income, middle income, and low income panels. In the empirical part, we draw on the growth theory and augment the classical growth model, which consists of capital stock, labor force and inflation, with foreign direct investment and energy. Generally, we show mixed results about the interrelationship between energy consumption, FDI and economic growth.

The nexus between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth has newly started to be discussed in energy economics literature. This literature can be divided into three lines. The first line of research focuses on the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth. This nexus suggests that economic growth and energy consumption may be jointly determined, because higher economic growth requires more energy consumption. Similarly, more efficient energy use needs a higher level of economic growth. Therefore, the direction of causality may not be determined prior. Since the pioneer work of Kraft and Kraft (1978), the Granger causality test approach has become a popular tool for studying the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in different countries (see, inter alia, Stern, 1993, Belloumi, 2009, Pao, 2009, Ghosh, 2010 and Ozturk and Acaravci, 2010) and this leads to four testable hypotheses; (1) a Granger causal relationship from energy to GDP, (2) a Granger causal relationship from GDP to energy, (3) a feedback relationship between energy and GDP, and (4) no Granger causal relationship between energy and GDP (neutrality). Ozturk and Acaravci (2010) have investigated the causal relationship between energy and economic growth and find a bi-directional Granger causality between energy variables and economic growth in Hungary. However, Belloumi (2009) has used a VECM Model and showed that, in Tunisia, there is a causal relationship between energy consumption and income over the period of 1971–2004. The second line of researches has examined the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth. The role of foreign investment in economic growth has been considered one of the basic principles in economics. Many researchers conclude that the rate of capital formation determines the rate of economic growth (see, inter alia, Ekanayake et al., 2003; Tsang and Yip, 2007; Omri and Kahouli, 2013). For example, De Long et al. (1992) found a strong causal relationship between equipment investment and economic growth. Blomstrom et al. (1996) also reported that the growth rate is more closely related to the capital formation rates in succeeding periods than to the contemporary or preceding rates. Alfaro et al. (2010) have shown that FDI leads to higher additional growth in developed economies. Lee and Chang (2009) reported that FDI has a large direct effect on economic growth and extends the potential gains associated with FDI. Aitken et al. (1997) have shown evidence of beneficial spillovers from multinational enterprises to the host economy, whereas Hsiao and Shen (2003) reported that economic growth is one of the important factors in attracting FDI, in particular in developing countries. Some studies indicate that the direction of causality between economic growth and FDI is subject to country-specific factors ( Zhang, 2001). Nguyen and Nguyen (2007) have identified the two-way linkage between FDI and economic growth in which FDI promotes economic growth, and in turn, economic growth is viewed as a tool to attract FDI. Moreover, Anwar and Nguyen (2010) study the two-way linkage between economic growth and FDI in 61 provinces of Vietnam over the period 1996–2005. They support the view that, in overall terms, reinforcing two-way linkage between FDI and economic growth exists in Vietnam and explored the link between FDI and economic growth across seven regions of Vietnam. The empirical analysis reveals that a two-way linkage between FDI and economic growth exists only in four regions. The third line of researches has examined the relationship between foreign direct investment and energy consumption. In this issue, Tang (2009) opines that the influx of FDI is inducing energy consumption through the expansionary of industrialization, transportation and manufacturing sectors development while energy is required to support the manufacturing process. This area of research is relatively less researched and can be considered as nascent. Mielnik and Goldemberg (2000) found a positive relationship between FDI and energy intensity in a sample of 20 developing countries. Sadorsky (2010) also found a positive and statistically significant relationship between FDI and energy consumption in a sample of 22 developing economies. FDI allows businesses cheaper and/or easier access to financial capital, which can be used to expand their existing operations or construct new plants and factories, all of which increase the demand for energy. Consistent with this view that FDI leads to greater economic growth is the likelihood that energy demand should be positively affected by increases in FDI. Bekhet and Othman (2011) examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and foreign direct investment in Malaysia, during a period of 1971–2009. The results were found to be cointegrated and indicated the existence of long run causal relationship among the variables. Bento (2011) showed a modest and negative effect of FDI on energy consumption in the context of Portugal, during the period of 1980–2007. Finally, most previous studies have shown that higher economic growth requires more energy consumption. It has also been found that FDI is often a key determinant of economic growth. It is therefore worthwhile to investigate the nexus between energy consumption, FDI and economic growth by considering them simultaneously in a modeling framework. The present study is different from the three lines of the literature identified above in the following ways. Compared to previous studies, this paper used dynamic simultaneous equations based on structural modeling to study the nexus between energy consumption, FDI inflows and economic growth for a global panel consisting of 65 countries. However, to the best of our knowledge, none of the empirical studies have focused on investigating the nexus between energy–FDI–growth via the simultaneous equations model. The model allows to examine at the sometime the interrelationship between energy consumption, FDI and economic growth estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). We investigate the three-way linkage between energy–FDI–growth for 65 countries by using the GMM-estimator. Specifically, this study utilizes three structural equations models that allow one to simultaneously examine the impact of (i) FDI and energy consumption on economic growth, (ii) economic growth and energy consumption on FDI, and (iii) FDI and economic growth on energy consumption. In addition, in this study we do not use panel unit root and panel cointegration approaches, as has been the case in this literature to date. Rather, we use a dynamic simultaneous-equation model with panel data, which follows the spirit of the conventional ‘growth model’ framework. This approach ensures that there is a strong theoretical foundation for the empirical analysis (Sharma, 2010). Our approach in this study is to estimate the short-run elasticities and not to estimate the long-run elasticity given our growth form modeling approach. There is a strong motivation for us to apply a growth form approach to analyzing the interrelationship between energy, FDI and economic growth. We were motivated by the fact that there are no studies that model this interaction using growth form models. Finally, we use a dynamic simultaneous-equation model with panel data of 65 countries, which allows us to derive short-run elasticities. The paper is organized as follows: after introduction which is provided in Section 1 above, brief literature review is carried out in Section 2. The methodological framework is explained in Section 3. Data and results are discussed in Section 4. Final section concludes the study and gives some policy implications.

While the literature on energy–FDI–GDP for singular countries and for panels of countries has increased over last few years, there is no study that examines the interaction between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth using a growth framework and simultaneous equations models. The objective of the present work is to fill this research gap by examining the above interaction over the period 1990–2011. We go a step further and examine this relationship for not only a global panel consisting of 65 countries but also for a number of sub-panels. These sub-panels are constructed based on the income level of countries. Our main findings are as follows. First, for the high-income countries, we find that there are bi-directional causal relationships between energy consumption, FDI inflows and economic growth. Second, for the middle-income countries, the findings reveal that there is bi-directional causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption, and between economic growth and FDI inflows; there is also uni-directional causal relationship from FDI to energy consumption. Furthermore, for the low-income countries, it has also found that there is bi-directional causal relationship between economic growth and FDI inflows; there is uni-directional causal relationship from economic growth to energy consumption and from energy consumption to FDI inflows. Finally, for the global panel, the findings reveal that there is there is bi-directional causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption, and between economic growth and FDI inflows; there is also uni-directional causal relationship from FDI to energy consumption. The main policy implications emerging from our study is as follows. First, we find that there is bi-directional causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth only for the global panel and for the high- and middle-income countries. Our results seem to significantly reject the neo-classical assumption that energy is neutral for growth. As such, it is important to take into account their possible negative effects on economic growth in establishing energy conservation policies. These policies will be beneficial for these countries in terms of saving energy and making efficient use of it as energy is one of the major source for goods and services production. Second, we find that there is bi-directional causal relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth in the four panels of countries. This implies that an increase in the stock of FDI inflows increases economic growth which attracts further FDI into these countries. This suggests that policy makers in these countries to consider more prudent policies might involve eliminating barriers that prevent local firms from establishing adequate linkages, improving local firms' access to inputs, technology, and financing, and streamlining the procedures associated with selling inputs. But we might also seek to improve domestic conditions, which should have the dual effect of attracting foreign investment (Alfaro et al., 2006) and enabling host economies to maximize the benefits of such foreign investment. Furthermore, in order to provide a more efficient platform for attracting and optimize the environment for FDI, it is necessary for the local government to improve laws and statutes and make reasonable industrial policies to guide the industry distribution of FDI, which will be helpful for the local government to play a positive role in upgrading the industrial structure, reducing energy consumption, and establishing an energy-saving city. Third, we find that the effect of FDI on energy consumption is expected to be remarkable in middle- or low-income countries than high-income countries (a 1% increase in FDI yields 0.13%, 0.20%, and 0.27% increases in energy consumption for high-, middle-, and low-income countries, respectively). The weak influence of FDI on energy consumption in high-income countries than middle- and low-income countries can be explained by the construction of infrastructure, development of manufacturing sector, and encouragement R&S in green technology in most of these countries before the 1990s. For these reasons, policymakers in the middle- and low-income countries should implement a dual principal strategy that, on one hand, increases investment in energy infrastructure and encourages R&D in green technology such as exercising proper soil conservation techniques and sustainable farming practices in order to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels, while, on the other, some efforts must be put on attracting foreign investors which address the renewable energy and green technology. Hence, the integration of foreign capital may be a sensible way to mitigate the climate change and continue to boost economic growth. The governments of these countries should also consider the inflows of foreign direct investment when formulating energy policies because our results confirm that these are important factors that influence the energy consumption and economic growth.