تاثیر گردشگری، مصرف انرژی و بی ثباتی سیاسی در رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا

Using panel data of 24 countries in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region from 2001 to 2009, the purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of tourism, energy consumption and political instability on economic growth within the neoclassical growth framework. To address the objective of this study, we utilise both the static panel data approach as well as the dynamic generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator to examine the impact of candidate variables. Our results show that energy consumption and tourism significantly contribute to the economic growth of countries in the MENA region. Hence, our study lends some support to the existence of the tourism-led growth and energy-led growth hypotheses in the region. In line with our expectation, our estimation results also reveal that political instability impedes the process of economic growth and development in the MENA region. Therefore, macroeconomic policies to promote expansion in tourism and energy consumption will directly stimulate economic growth. Additionally, efforts to help the region overcome its history of political instability would attract more international tourist arrivals and further invigorate economic growth.

Economic growth is one of the most important elements in macroeconomic analysis. Therefore, confirming the actual catalysts of growth is essential to the formulation of effective policy instruments that will promote long-term economic growth. Theoretically, tourism and energy play an important role in stimulating economic growth. Tourism is one of the largest and fastest growing services sector in the world. It may contribute to the economic growth of a country by creating more employment opportunity, increasing investment in new infrastructure, and augmenting a country's tax revenues and foreign exchange earnings. Moreover, Stern, (2011) noted that energy influences economic growth through its impact on production activities. Nevertheless, the existing empirical literature reveals that the impacts of tourism and energy consumption on economic growth remain a puzzle. Some of the empirical studies found that tourism and/or energy consumption would effectively promote economic growth (e.g. Tang, 2008; Tang and Abosedra, 2012; Tang and Tan, 2013a, 2013b; Tang, 2013; Apergis and Tang, 2013), whereas others empirical studies argued that economic growth is not the result of tourism or energy consumption (e.g. Oh, 2005, Katircioğlu, 2009a, Payne and Mervar, 2010 and Shahbaz and Feridun, 2012). Apart from that proposition, we also find that most studies ignore the role of institutional factors such as political instability on economic growth. According to Aisen and Veiga (2013), political instability is likely to create volatility and frequent change in policies. This tension would be harmful to the macroeconomic performance of any country (see also Campos and Nugent, 2002). Moreover, a recent study conducted by Ingram et al. (2013) found that political instability is likely to jeopardise the peace and security of a country, which in turn has a negative impact on tourism. Fletcher and Morakabati (2008) have also highlighted similar outcomes in Fiji and Kenya. Therefore, political instability is another important factor in determining the economic growth of a country. The purpose of this study is to investigate empirically the role of tourism, energy consumption and political instability in the economic growth of 24 countries in the MENA region via panel data estimation. Within the neoclassical growth framework, our motivation in this study goes beyond examining the validity of the tourism-led growth and energy-led growth hypotheses. This study also attempts to compare the impact of tourism, energy consumption, capital, and political instability in the process of economic growth of these countries. Therefore, more useful and reliable information can be provided to the policymakers to formulate effective policies to promote long-term economic growth for the MENA region. This region was chosen as the focus of this study because empirical analysis of countries in this region is relatively scarce. In addition, the characteristics of the countries in the MENA region are very suitable to the case of the present study, for example, its abundance in oil and natural resources. More specifically, World Bank (2012) showed that the MENA region covered approximately 57 per cent of the world oil reserves and approximately 41 per cent of natural gas resources. In terms of tourism, MENA has been named as a tourist paradise, owing to the rich history of its ancient civilisations, its unique cultural heritage and many religious sites. Bell et al. (2012) noted that in the MENA region nearly 4.5 per cent of GDP is contributed by the tourism sector and 6.8 per cent of total employment is in the tourism sector. In addition, Al-mulali (2011) claimed that the economy of the MENA region is likely to be influenced by fluctuations in oil price and political instability. In 2011, the tourism sector in the MENA region suffered a decline in tourist arrivals owing to the Arab Spring revolution and the on-going political instability in the region ( UNWTO, 2012). Specifically, international tourist arrivals to the Middle East dropped by 8.4 per cent and those to North Africa declined by 6.5 per cent. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to analyse the role of tourism, energy consumption and political instability in the economic growth of countries in the MENA region. The rest of this study will be organised as follows. The subsequent section will provide the literature review pertaining to the tourism-led growth hypothesis, energy-led growth hypothesis and the impact of political instability on economic growth. We describe the empirical model and the source of data in Section 3. The econometric techniques used in this study will be reported in Section 4. Then, Section 5 will discuss the empirical results of this study. Ultimately, the conclusions and policy implications are presented in Section 6.

The overall economic performance of the MENA region over the last two decades has been relatively low and rather disappointing compared to other regions. In this paper, we estimate a growth model for countries in the MENA region. Unlike the earlier studies, apart from tourism and capital, we have also incorporated energy consumption and political instability as additional control variables to explain the behaviour of economic growth in the region. This study uses annual panel data from 2001 to 2009 of 24 countries in the MENA region. In terms of methodology, we estimate the growth model using the static panel estimation techniques and dynamic GMM estimator. Both estimations show that tourism and energy consumption have significant positive impacts on economic growth. Therefore, our results support the tourism-led growth and the energy-led growth hypotheses in the MENA region. However, we find that economic growth of countries in the MENA region is more responsive to energy consumption than to capital and tourism. In addition, our empirical results also reveal that political instability reduces economic growth in the region. Therefore, the relatively low economic performance of countries in the MENA region in the past two decades could be attributed in part to the unstable political condition. It is well known that the MENA region has a higher degree of political instability, greater fragmentation of the political systems, and less economic freedom as compared to other regions in the world (Makdisi et al., 2007). This region has been shaken by violence and political instability for many years. It has witnessed, since the beginning 2011, many uprisings seeking more democratic systems that hopefully will lead to more political stability in the long-run. This could rid the region of the negative consequences of uncertainty associated with political instability and accelerate the growth of the region. Considering the results reported, our study offers four policy implications as follows. First, several steps should be taken to enhance the contribution of the tourism sectors to the economic growth of the region. These steps include policy initiatives to promote tourism activities within the region and coordination efforts to ease tourists’ ability to visit several countries within the region, which should be a top priority for tourism to grow in the region. In this regard, allowing international tourists to travel within the region without the need for an entry visa for each country will help. Clearly, this goal will require further liberalisation, integration and gradual phasing out of existing country-specific entry requirements for tourists. Second, to foster further integration among countries of the MENA area, the region needs to develop a strong institutional framework of economic integration. In this regard, structural reforms affecting such areas as business climate, trade policy and governance should be accelerated. The aim of this effort should be to harmonise the existing laws and regulations used by the countries in this region. Furthermore, coordination among existing institutions in the countries of the MENA region focusing on corporate governance issues has to be developed and implemented with the goal of reducing transaction costs. This is important so that the region can catch up in an increasingly competitive global environment. Third, countries in the MENA region need to take measures to improve governance, including steps to improve the delivery of public services and its quality, to combat corruption, and to improve property rights. This will make it easier to formalise cooperation legally at the regional level which is essential. Some countries can benefit from the experience of others within MENA that have already taken some steps in this area. Efforts in this regard should also continue on a large scale in the future to create a better business and investment climate. Fourth, given that the increased level of income in a country or region will enhance its chances of sustaining democracy as noted in Lipset (1959), governments in the MENA region should take measures to encourage political stability once its level of income increases. This will further attract more international tourist arrivals, which in turn can lead to regional economic growth. Obviously, such growth will have to be supported by further capital formation and energy consumption as our results show. In addition, coordination between oil producers and consumers within MENA countries needs to be strengthened by further highlighting the importance of long-term cooperation at the regional level among MENA countries. This is because developing, reforming and linking existing markets among countries in the region are crucial improvements for accelerating long-term growth in the region.