سهام توسعه بازار می تواند افزایش رشد اقتصادی؟ شواهد تجربی از بازارهای نوظهور در شرق و مرکز اروپا

The current economic and financial crisis has had a strong influence on stock market performances in the process of financing the economic activities. This paper aims to analyze the dynamic of the stock market in Central and Eastern Europe under the impact of the macroeconomic imbalances, emphasizing the volatility of the foreign capital inflows. The data selected for the study will be used to test the impact of stock market development on the correlation between foreign capital inflows and economic growth. The result will allow comparisons between the macroeconomic performances and identifying the adequate measures through which national capital market can become more attractive for investors.

International emerging markets have attracted the attention of researchers and economists, especially during the current economic crisis and due to their high potential for development and their capacity to grow faster than the developed economies. The relationship between financial liberalization, stock market development and economic growth was intensively debated in the theoretical literature, starting with the work of Goldsmith,1969 and Shaw, 1973. Their perspectives highlighted the positive contribution of financial development to meet higher economic growth rates, based on two main approaches: role and accentuating the favourable impact exerted by capital account liberalization on economic growth and financial development. Capital account liberalization and the development of the financial sector have had an important role on stock market development and growth indicators, under the factors that influence their relationship. Levine, Zervos, 1996 and Demigurc Kunt and Levine, 1996 carried out their analysis focusing on stock market indicators and demonstrated the existence of a causal relation between stock market development and economic growth. Stock market development facilitates the access of investors to financial resources and stimulates efficient allocation of resources, boosting both national and foreign investments. An adequate functioning of the stock market represents a significant condition for financial sector evolution which has an essential contribution to sustainable economic development, transforming the national economy in an attractive one for foreign investors. The paper is structured into four sections: the first section presents the theoretical framework about the topic, followed by a dynamic analysis of the indicators; the third section is dedicated to the econometric study based on data on Romanian stock market, meanwhile, the last section provides the conclusions drawn from the analysis and a suggestion for measures the improve its impact on economic development.

The present study represents an attempt to set up the correlation between stock market development and economic growth in Romania, based on annual available data, through a different and modern technique: Granger Causality test. In Romania, the stock market is in a continuing process of development, but still, there are significant measures that need to be carried out to stimulate its evolution. The results showed that a higher rate of economic growth is definitely stimulated by the real investments, which indirectly generate positive externalities on stock market indicators and in the real sector. Granger Causality analysis showed that market capitalization and stock value traded do not exert any impact on economic growth rates, emphasizing the low level of development of the stock market and its reduce role in the Romanian economy. In the national economy, real investments have a key influence on economic growth rates which it is expected to enhance the development of the stock market, and, on the other side, the values obtained confirm the positive influence market capitalization may have on real investments, and, in consequence, on the national growth rates, for a 10 % level. Bucharest Stock Exchange is an emerging market which has not gained yet the confidence of the investors, despite the efforts made to increase its transparency. Weak regulation has had a negative influence on the stock market indicators since its appearance, but lately, the responsible authorities strengthen the rules and laws adopted on the stock markets and the improvements made in its functioning can be easily seen as the national stock market developed international cooperation and signed important agreements.