توسعه اقتصادی و منابع تخریب: درگیری و سیاست

The paper develops a model that shares common features with computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. It is used to address two questions. First, what are the future prospects of a green gross domestic product (GDP); should we be concerned with resource degradation or not; and, to what extent, and under which conditions? Secondly, which policies are more effective than others? Model closures are simulated using different specifications of exogenous variables. Further, alternative policies are treated: human capital, price incentives, property rights and poverty reduction. In the African context, we show that while the prospects of environment-friendly economic development, i.e. a rising green GDP, are weak in the medium-run, under certain structural conditions there is a range of effective policies that resolves the conflict between economic growth and resource degradation, thus contributing to a rising green GDP.

Land degradation, deforestation and desertification can seriously reduce the productivity of land, and thereby jeopardise economic growth. The conflict between environmental sustainability and economic growth is nowhere more obvious than in developing countries. In these countries, the overwhelming majority of people are dependent for their economic growth on activities that are tied to land, such as Agriculture, Forestry and Livestock, or, briefly, the AFL sectors. Four adverse interdependencies are commonly acknowledged. First, the inaccessibility of poor farmers to modern technical knowledge and information leads to misuse of natural resources [1] and [2]. Second, farm-gate prices in most developing countries are far below their world market levels. This discourages farmers’ incentives for soil conservation and encourages soil depletion [3], [4] and [5]. Third, lack of well-defined private property rights over natural resources lead to overexploitation and degradation of these resources [1] and [6]. Fourth, pressured by their poverty, poor people adopt short-term survival strategies, and overuse land resources, thus giving environmental protection a low priority [7]. In spite of these negative developments, it has not been established for badly affected developing countries whether economic growth net of land degradation is positive or negative. In other words, if the notion of green gross domestic product (GDP) can be quantified, it is important to establish whether it is on the increase or decrease.

Many developing countries are confronted with a possible trade-off between economic growth and environmental conservation. What is the extent of this trade-off? And which policies are more effective then others in achieving both objectives? The objectives of the current study were to model the relationships pertaining to these questions, and provide answers in the context of the largest African country, the Sudan. The paper develops a model that shares common features with computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Model closures were simulated using different specifications of exogenous variables. Alternative policies were then simulated and evaluated. The focus has gone to four alternative policies: investment in human capital, greater price incentives, institutionalising property rights, and poverty reduction.