توسعه اقتصادی، تولید گازهای گلخانه ای آلاینده و مصرف انرژی در مالزی

The objective of this paper is to examine the long-run relationship between output, pollutant emissions, and energy consumption in Malaysia during the period 1971–1999. To supplement the findings of cointegrating analysis, we assess the causal relationships between the variables using the recent causality tests available in the literature. The results indicate that pollution and energy use are positively related to output in the long-run. We found a strong support for causality running from economic growth to energy consumption growth, both in the short-run and long-run.

The relationships between output and energy consumption, as well as output and environmental pollution, have been the subject of intense research over the past few decades. However, the empirical evidence remains controversial and ambiguous to date. Economic development is closely related to energy consumption since higher economic development is expected when more energy is consumed. However, it is also equally likely that more efficient use of energy (which could lead to a reduction in energy consumption) requires a higher level of economic development. That is, better economic performance may be a catalyst for energy efficiency. As such, energy consumption and economic development may be jointly determined. The importance of this nexus has been well-documented in the literature. In a seminal study, Kraft and Kraft (1978) found a uni-directional Granger causality running from output to energy consumption for the United States during the period 1947–1974. The subsequent studies on this subject, which differ in terms of the time period covered, country chosen, econometric techniques employed, and the control variables used in the estimation, either confirm or contradict the results of Kraft and Kraft (1978).1 With the development of time series econometric techniques, more recent studies tend to focus on the cointegrating relationship between output and energy consumption.2

In this paper, we examine the dynamic relationships between output, CO2 emissions, and energy consumption for Malaysia during the period 1971–1999 using a multivariate vector error-correction model. To complement the findings of cointegration analysis, we perform various causality tests to throw light on the causal links of output-energy and output-pollution. The empirical results provide support for a robust long-run relationship between the variables, indicating that CO2 emissions and energy use are positively related to output in the long-run. The causality results support the argument that economic growth exerts a positive causal influence on energy consumption growth, both in the short-run and long-run. The results also provide some support for a feedback relationship in the long-run. With regards to the output-pollution link, only a weak causality running from CO2 emissions growth to economic growth was found in the long-run.