ریسک نقدینگی، توسعه اقتصادی و اثرات سیاست پولی

Empirical evidence indicates that monetary policy is not super-neutral in many countries. In particular, in high inflation economies, inflation is negatively related to economic activity. By comparison, inflation may be positively correlated with output in low inflation countries. We present a neoclassical growth model with money in which the incidence of liquidity risk is inversely related to aggregate capital formation. Interestingly, there may be multiple monetary steady-states where the effects of monetary policy vary. In poor economies, the financial system is highly distorted and higher rates of money growth are associated with less capital formation. In contrast, in advanced economies, a Tobin effect is observed. Since inflation exacerbates distortions from a coordination failure in the low-capital steady-state, individuals become much more exposed to liquidity risk. Consequently, optimal monetary policy depends on the level of development.

There is a growing awareness that monetary policy is not super-neutral in many countries. In particular, in high inflation economies, a significant amount of evidence indicates that inflation is negatively related to economic activity. For example, in their study of Argentina and Brazil, Bae and Ratti (2000) find that higher rates of money growth are associated with lower levels of output.1 By comparison, inflation may be positively correlated with output in low inflation economies. Notably, Bullard and Keating (1995) demonstrate that inflation is positively correlated with output in some low inflation countries while in others there is no relationship. Ahmed and Rogers (2000) focus on the U.S. economy. In their analysis, inflation and output are positively correlated. It has also been observed that inflation is generally higher in developing countries than industrialized economies.

There is a growing awareness that monetary policy is not super-neutral in many countries. In particular, in high inflation economies, a significant amount of evidence indicates that inflation is negatively related to economic activity. By comparison, inflation may be positively correlated with output in low inflation economies. This paper seeks to provide an explanation for the asymmetric effects of monetary policy across countries. In particular, our analysis is based on the idea that the degree of liquidity risk varies across different stages of economic development. Notably, in poor countries, individuals are more susceptible to events which cause them to liquidate their holdings of assets. Since the exposure to liquidity risk varies across countries, individuals respond differently to rates of return in low income countries than in advanced economies. As a result, the effects of monetary policy will also vary between developing and advanced countries.