دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 147258
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

مدل فاوستمن تحت خطر طوفان و عدم اطمینان قیمت: مطالعه موردی راش اروپایی در شمال غربی فرانسه

عنوان انگلیسی
The Faustmann model under storm risk and price uncertainty: A case study of European beech in Northwestern France
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
147258 2017 8 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Forest Policy and Economics, Volume 81, August 2017, Pages 30-37

ترجمه کلمات کلیدی
عدم اطمینان قیمت، آسیب طوفان، خطرات، صنعت چوب، سیاست جنگل،
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی
Price uncertainty; Storm damage; Risks; Wood industry; Forest policy;
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  مدل فاوستمن تحت خطر طوفان و عدم اطمینان قیمت: مطالعه موردی راش اروپایی در شمال غربی فرانسه

چکیده انگلیسی

International, economic and environmental contexts in this century are strongly affected by risks and uncertainties. Due to the long-term nature of forest investment, forest managers must integrate risks and uncertainties into their decisions. Our objective is to build a decision support tool to optimize forest management under multiple risks: extreme events and price variations. Our method integrates, into an economic model, different types of models on forest growth, price functions, predicted storm intensity and intervals, and damage functions. A numerical simulation applied to European beech (Fagus sylvatica) in Northwestern France shows that price variation as between 1974 and 2016 produces higher economic loss than does storm damage. We conclude on the need to concentrate forest policy on the development of new technologies and wood industry practices to increase the value of this natural resource. However, future climate change may well influence storm frequency and intensity, and this places limits on our conclusions.