توسعه اقتصادی و تقاضا برای انرژی: چشم انداز تاریخی در 20 سال آینده

This paper draws on evidence from the last two centuries of industrialisation, analysing the evolution of energy intensity over the long- and short-run. We argue that the increased specialisation of the fuel mix, coupled with accelerating convergence of both the sectoral and technological composition of economies, will continue to improve energy intensity of economic output and to reduce the reliance on any single energy resource. This analysis suggests that even high growth in per capita income over the next 20 years need not be constrained by resource availability.

When the future of global energy markets is discussed, two main concerns feature regularly. One is climate change and carbon output, an issue beyond the scope of this paper. The other is the question whether growth in energy demand will exceed the resources available to fuel continued economic growth and industrialisation, especially in the non-OECD economies. The paper contributes to this second question, with a particular focus on energy intensity and demand. It is an attempt to draw lessons from past experiences with periods of industrialisation and structural change, and the impact they had on energy demand. The reason for this attempt originates with the need to assess future energy demand for the next 20 years in BP’s Energy Outlook 2030 ( BP, 2012). The Energy Outlook 2030 forecasts future fuel trends for the period 2011–2030. It builds upon BP’s longstanding work on the Statistical Review of World Energy, which documents trends in the production and use of energy. The results of the 2030 Outlook are largely derived “top down”: global energy demand trends are assessed and national (or regional) demand is derived using assumptions on population growth, GDP growth and changes in end-user demand. In a similar fashion, regional supply availability is assessed fuel by fuel, capacity and other constraints are taken into account, and substitutability evaluated; then, in an iterative process, demand and supply schedules and prices are determined.

For all we know today, and for all we can learn from history, the convergence of national energy intensity levels at lower and lower global values should continue—as long as economic openness allows global fuel trade, the exchange of technical knowledge and the standardisation of products to continue. Likewise, fuel supplies under these conditions should continue to specialise, a process encouraged by the same factors of trade, universal adaptation of energy technologies, and standardisation of end-use. Continued specialisation means continued enhancements of the efficiency of energy production as well as energy use.