توسعه اقتصادی، یکپارچه سازی انرژی بازار و تقاضای انرژی: مفاهیم برای شرق آسیا

This paper uses a general method of moment regression technique to estimate an energy demand function with a dataset covering 71 countries between 1965 and 2010. The estimated results show that countries undergoing rapid economic growth may show relatively higher income and price elasticities in the long run. The higher income elasticities and lower price elasticity in the short run of rapid growing countries may impose pressure on energy demand in the domestic and international markets. Energy market integration can help to reduce such pressure by smoothing energy demand through lowering its income elasticity and creating a flexible energy market through increasing its price elasticity. These findings have important implications for forecasting energy demand and promoting international cooperation in East Asia.

Price and income are two primary factors shaping the energy consumption of a country, and estimation of the elasticities of these two factors is thus essential for defining the energy demand function. In previous empirical studies [1], [2], [3], [4] and [5], the income and price elasticities of energy products have been widely estimated with either single-country time-series data or cross-country data. However, there is no general agreement on representative values of the income and price elasticities, and in particular it is still not clear why the magnitude of these elasticities may differ across countries with disparate economic development levels and institutional arrangements. Using a comprehensive survey of quantitative studies on country-specific energy consumption, Dahl [6] shows that the demand for energy is price inelastic and slightly income elastic at the national level but there is no clear evidence that the developing world should be less price elastic or more income elastic than the industrialized world. In contrast, Brenton [5] and Ferguson et al. [2], when using cross-country energy consumption data to estimate different energy demand functions, find that the price elasticity for energy is usually higher in the poor countries than in the rich countries, and that the income elasticity for energy declines with rising income.

This study uses a GMM regression technique to estimate a cross-country demand function for energy products, using 45-year long data from 71 countries, and examines the income and price elasticities of energy consumption between 1965 and 2010. The results show that countries with different economic development stages demonstrate different levels of energy demand and thus the associated price and income elasticities. In particular, we found that countries undergoing rapid economic growth may show relatively higher income and price elasticities in the long run. The higher income elasticities and lower price elasticity in the short run of rapid growing countries may increase additional pressure on energy demand in domestic and international markets. EMI can help to reduce such pressure by smoothing domestic energy demand through lowering its income elasticity and creating a flexible energy market through increasing its price elasticity. These findings can be used in explaining the recent boom in EAS's demand for energy products. It may also indicate a means of reducing the pressure of energy demand arising from economic growth in the EAS region through strengthening the integration of the regional energy market, which has important implications for forecasting energy demand and promoting international cooperation in the EAS region. At least two policy implications can be drawn.