هزینه های مالی و رشد اقتصادی: برخی از حقایق تلطیف

Using an “event analysis”, this paper complements the cross-country approach to the study of fiscal correlates of growth. Data on fiscal expenditures and growth for a database of 140 countries (118 developing countries) over 1972–2005 are reorganized around turning points providing a summary but encompassing description of “what is in the data”. For this sample, the probability of occurrence of a fiscal event is about 10%, and, the probability of a growth event once a fiscal event had occurred is around 26%. For developing countries, fiscal events followed by growth events occur under situations of (i) significantly lesser deficit, (ii) fewer resources devoted to non-interest general public services and (iii) shift in primary expenditures toward transport & communication. After controlling for the growth-inducing effects of positive terms-of-trade shocks and of trade liberalization reform, probit estimates indicate that a growth event is more likely to occur in a developing country when surrounded by a fiscal event. Moreover, the probability of occurrence of a growth event in the years following a fiscal event is greater the lower is the associated fiscal deficit, confirming that success of a growth-oriented fiscal expenditure reform is associate with a stabilized macroeconomic environment (through limited primary fiscal deficit).

A renewed focus on fiscal policy and growth has spawned a lively debate over demands for what has been dubbed greater “fiscal space” to support growth. Besides a few case studies (see World Bank, 2007), so far the exploration of fiscal space and performance in developing countries has proceeded along two paths: (i) studies of the efficiency of specific public sector expenditures—e.g., several studies on infrastructure (Calderón & Servén, 2004) or on other components of social infrastructure (Estache, Gonzalez, & Trujillo, 2007), and (ii) cross-country growth regressions in which government expenditures are included among the regressors (Adam & Bevan, 2005 or Devarajan, Swaroop, & Zou, 1996). Perotti (2007) reviews critically the contributions of the production function and growth regression approaches. Among the more interesting lessons from these exercises (Adam & Bevan, 2005; Bose et al., 2007 and Kneller et al., 1999), using dynamic panels have persuasively shown that capital expenditure, as well as spending on education, health, and transport and communication can be favorable to growth when the government budget constraint is simultaneously taken into account in the equation. As pointed out in several studies (e.g., Easterly et al., 1993 and Jones and Olken, 2008), growth tends to be highly unstable in low-income countries. This makes it difficult to unveil the relation between growth and its fundamentals leading Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik (2005) to pay attention to turning points by relying on an event analysis. This paper applies this approach over a large data base of 140 countries over the period 1972–2005 providing a description of the correlates between significant public spending “shocks” and growth accelerations, reorganizing the data around turning points, or “events” (calendar time is transformed into “event time”). This descriptive analysis should be viewed as complementary to the approaches described above. More specifically, we construct growth “events” along the lines of Hausmann et al. (2005). Lacking information on milestone events in fiscal reforms similar to those available for trade reforms as in Wacziarg and Welch (2008), we define an “event” on the fiscal side using an approach similar to the definition of an event on the growth side, i.e., based on conditional changes in primary fiscal expenditures but taking into account the government budget constraint. This descriptive approach should be informative as it provides an easy-to-understand exploration of the correlates between fiscal policy (here fiscal expenditures) and performance (here per capita GDP growth). It avoids imposing a single common linear model for all countries as done in cross-countries regressions. When applied to a large database, as done here, it gives a more encompassing description of “what is in the data” and is thus complementary to the three other approaches mentioned above. To highlight the main findings, in this sample, the probability of occurrence of a fiscal event is about 10%, and the probability of a growth event once a fiscal event has occurred is in the 22–28% range. The probability of occurrence of a fiscal event is higher for the bottom half of the income distribution of countries. For the developing country group which is the focus of this study, fiscal events followed by growth events occur under situations of a significantly lesser deficit, and a shift in discretionary expenditures toward transport & communication is only observed for fiscal events followed by growth events. After controlling for the growth-inducing effects of positive terms-of-trade shocks and of trade liberalization reform, the statistical analysis in which the probability of a growth event is conditioned on the occurrence of a fiscal event in surrounding years confirms that growth events are, on average, more likely when a fiscal event has occurred. Moreover, the probability of occurrence of a growth event in the five years following a fiscal event is greater the lower is the associated fiscal deficit, confirming that success of a growth-oriented fiscal- expenditure package is associated with a stabilized macroeconomic environment (through limited fiscal deficit). The paper unfolds as follows. Section 2 presents the identification conditions of both growth and fiscal events (with details and sensitivity analysis left to the Carrère & de Melo, 2007, Annex A.3). Section 3 studies the characteristics of growth and fiscal events, and the relation between the two. The descriptive analysis computes fiscal event (unconditional) probabilities and probabilities that fiscal events are followed (or not) by growth events. Section 4 investigates the characteristics of fiscal events, in particular the ones followed by a growth event, in terms of geography, underlying changes in expenditure composition, and in the level of associated primary deficit. Then the statistical analysis turns on the growth side, the objective being to see if, based on probit estimates, growth events are more likely to occur in a developing country when surrounded by a fiscal event. Section 5 concludes.

This paper constructed growth and primary spending expenditures (i.e., net of interest payments) “events” over the period of 1972–2005 for 118 developing and 22 High Income OECD countries. Fiscal expenditures were compiled by Government function, and “events” were sought over 5-year rolling windows. Significant “events” were approximately constructed as follows. For GDP per capita, acceleration in the average annual growth rate of 2% point per annum (ppa) between any rolling 5-year window would qualify for a growth “event”. For fiscal expenditures (expressed in GDP%), an increase in the average growth rate of approximately 1 ppa that would not be accompanied by an aggravation of the (consolidated central government) fiscal deficit beyond 2% of GDP would likewise qualify for a fiscal “event”. The resulting benchmark constructed data set (merging both fiscal and growth databases) had 58 growth events and 95 fiscal events over a sample that included 107 countries (84 developing countries) over 1977–2000 (1452 observations). For this sample, the (unconditional) probability of occurrence of a fiscal event is about 10%, and, for a large range of parameter values for the selection of a “significant” event, the probability of a growth event once a fiscal event had occurred is in the 22–28% range. The probability of occurrence of a fiscal event is higher for the bottom half of the income distribution of countries, but the probability that this fiscal event is followed by a growth event is higher for the third quartiles, corresponding to middle income countries (which are largely in Latin America). The probability of a fiscal event not followed by a growth event is significantly higher for the Africa region, prompting us to note that this result is coherent with the view that the success of a growth-oriented fiscal expenditure package hinges on the quality of the institutional environment. Concentrating on the Low and Middle Income sample of 84 countries, the paper investigates the differences in the pattern of functional expenditures for fiscal events followed by growth events compared to those not followed by a growth event. In addition to a significantly lower fiscal deficit for fiscal events followed by a growth event (which is partly an outcome of the way events were constructed), three other significant differences appear. First, fiscal events followed by growth events devote fewer resources to general public services. Second, fiscal events followed by a growth event are characterized by a growing share of transport and communication expenditure whereas the pattern is the opposite when the fiscal event is not followed by a growth event. Third, though the difference in means is not statistically significant, there is a higher growth in education expenditures when the fiscal event is followed by a growth event than when it is not. This description of the anatomy of fiscal events and their relation to growth events is completed by statistical analysis where a few controlling factors are included in a probit estimate of growth events on fiscal events. On average, we find that a growth event is more likely to occur when surrounded by a fiscal event. Second, controlling for the growth-related effects of other reforms and for favorable external conditions shocks, we estimate that for a typical developing country, the probability of occurrence of a growth event in the five years following a fiscal event is increased as the associated fiscal deficit is limited.