قیمت نفت، درآمد گردشگری و رشد اقتصادی: یک رویکرد VAR ساختاری برای کشورهای مدیترانه ای اروپا

In this study, a structural VAR model is employed to investigate the relationship among oil price shocks, tourism variables and economic indicators in four European Mediterranean countries. In contrast with the current tourism literature, we distinguish between three oil price shocks, namely, supply-side, aggregate demand and oil specific demand shocks. Overall, our results indicate that oil specific demand shocks contemporaneously affect inflation and the tourism sector equity index, whereas these shocks do not seem to have any lagged effects. By contrast, aggregate demand oil price shocks exercise a lagged effect, either directly or indirectly, to tourism generated income and economic growth. The paper does not provide any evidence that supply-side shocks trigger any responses from the remaining variables. Results are important for tourism agents and policy makers, should they need to create hedging strategies against future oil price movements or plan for economic policy developments.

Recent hikes in oil prices have necessitated the investigation of the relationship among tourism sector developments, economic growth and oil price movements. This investigation is considered very topical for the tourism industry given its energy-intensive nature (Becken, 2008; Gössling et al., 2005; Patterson & McDonald, 2004). Oil price changes could harm economic and tourism activities due to the effect they exert on transportation, production costs, economic uncertainty and disposable income (Becken, 2008). Especially for tourism dependent countries, income derived from the tourism sector could potentially help them facilitate future development strategies and goals or help them forge a resilient economy. In this regard, it is understood that tourism may very well serve as the engine for boosting aggregate demand and thus leading to economic growth. In the light of recent developments in economic conditions in Europe that consequently brought the matters of ‘short-run stability’ and ‘medium-run economic growth’ to the fore, identifying potential sources of growth constitutes a great challenge for any European country, but especially for the EMU periphery. The latter countries need to focus on the aggregate demand side of their economy in order to find ways to increase consumption and tourism sector could constitute an important driver of economic growth, since it represents an important component of their economy. Nevertheless, emphasis should be put upon the fact that countries with a high dependency on tourism activity are unevenly exposed to sudden fluctuations in oil prices ( Becken & Lennox, 2012). This entails careful planning as potential benefits of the tourism sector's developments could be diminished by higher oil prices. In this regard, the purpose of the following analysis is twofold. Initially, we review the literature associated with the relationship between economic growth and the tourism industry. Next, we highlight past findings related to the effects of oil prices on the economy.

This empirical study uses a structural VAR model to investigate the links among oil price shocks, tourism sector and economic growth in four European Mediterranean countries. Disentangling oil price shocks into three categories, as suggested by Hamilton (2009a, 2009b) and Kilian (2009), and using monthly data for the period 2000:1–2010:12, we find evidence to suggest that demand-side oil price shocks appear to exert an impact on tourism and the economy, whereas supply-side oil price shocks do not. To be more explicit, with reference to demand-side shocks, we observe that aggregate demand shocks have a significantly positive influence on tourism income and the economy (either directly or indirectly); nevertheless, this effect is not contemporaneously but it comes with a lag. On the other hand, oil specific demand shocks exercise a significant negative impact on tourism sector equity returns and inflation. This effect is only contemporaneous, though. Turning to the supply-side shocks, the absence of impact on both tourism industry and economy can be explained by the fact that changes in oil production do not significantly affect oil prices, as suggested by Kilian and Park (2009). Previous research has illustrated a negative effect of oil prices on the tourism sector (see, Becken, 2011; Becken & Lennox, 2012; Yeoman et al., 2007). Nonetheless, these past findings give an incomplete picture, as they do not consider the origin of oil price changes. Overall, this study signifies the importance of the origin of oil price shocks in this area of research. The empirical results provide evidence to suggest that different oil price shocks trigger different types of responses. Future research should concentrate on the effects of oil price shocks on tourism and economic growth for oil-exporting countries. In addition, it is essential that further studies examine these relationships in a time-varying environment. Finally, further research needs to be undertaken with respect to the effect of oil price shocks on different tourism segments.