به روز رسانی هزینه اقتصادی حوادث صنعتی در مقیاس بزرگ: برنامه تجزیه و تحلیل تاریخی حوادث
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی|
|17971||2000||7 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید|
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Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, Volume 13, Issue 1, January 2000, Pages 49–55
This paper analyses the feasibility of applying different update rates of industrial prices to the economic assessments of accidents with special emphasis on those related to the chemical process industry. The advantages and disadvantages of applying this technique to the historical analysis of accidents are analysed and compared with the results obtained with the five most widely used indexes. The results of a general analysis of the historical evolution of the cost of accidents recorded in two prestigious databases are also presented. Valid data are obtained for decision-making with regard to insurance premiums, revaluation of assets and risk management (administration, safety management of large chemical complexes).
The historical analysis of accidents is one of the most commonly used techniques for carrying out complete risk analyses. Its application makes it possible to identify the presence of real hazards in similar situations that have given rise to known accidents. Furthermore, it makes it possible to estimate the consequences that can be expected in a given accident by studying the consequences that the same type has had in the past. Nevertheless, the results thus obtained cannot be considered definitive, since there are many factors that distort them, including: 1. some hazards present in a given plant may not be taken into account if they have not previously triggered any significant accidents that were adequately recorded. Nevertheless, it is highly probable that the primary accident did manifest itself but that a set of fortunate and random circumstances permitted it to be controlled efficiently. In this regard, according to modern techniques for total loss control, it is important to record all the accidents that occur in a plant even if their consequences are minimum or even null; 2. the scale of a past accident is not necessarily an indication of what can be expected in other similar cases. A large number of factors can alter, aggravate or attenuate the consequences of the event studied; and 3. past experiences, although valid, cannot be directly extrapolated to the present. Modern production techniques, new technologies, and the process conditions and procedures used at a given point in time are not necessarily comparable to those of the past. New hazards are constantly being introduced that were not present in the past and, therefore, have not generated any record. On the other hand, greater safety measures are adopted and more effective means of intervention are available. In addition, from the point of view of the economic assessment of damage derived from an accident, the following aspects should be taken into account: 4. the concentration of control instruments and the increasingly widespread use of high technology in process plants considerably increases the economic damage derived from accidents, although their scope may be very similar to those that occurred in the past; 5. the criteria for assessing accidents must be revised and assumed with caution since currently many factors come into play that were unknown before, such as the analysis and testing of equipment to verify the absence of damage or proper repair after an accident, environmental reparation requirements (clean up) after an industrial accident, increase in the productivity ratio of the equipment, etc. Any assessment of an accident based on past experiences will always have to take an update factor in this regard into account; and 6. if losses for plant downtime were considered, and taking into account that the productivity of modern facilities is much higher than their equivalents in the past, it is not enough to simply update the economic amount for the losses due to downtime, but rather the value of this loss must be updated with the corresponding productivity factor. After taking all of this into consideration, it is evident that any measure that tends to lessen the discrepancies that exist between information from the past and current reality will contribute to obtaining more accurate and valid predictions. Thus, updating accident costs can allow a much more realistic and accurate economic estimate of the damage that can be expected in a given accident scenario. Numerous update indexes1 are published periodically and, since the information available about the economic scope of damage is very limited, any one of them is, a priori, applicable. This paper aims to analyse the feasibility of this application and, if applicable, establish the criteria considered optimum for its use in this field.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
Discarding the Engineering News-Record indexes (Building Cost Index and Construction Cost Index), the results obtained with the rest are similar, with a maximum error between them of 28% and an average of 12.6%. Lacking other information and with the available data, any one of them is acceptable. For chemical industry accidents in general, the Chemical Engineering Plant Cost Index or the Marshall & Stevens Index would be more suitable, but if the origin of the economic evaluations is more accurate, or the sector that the accidents correspond to or their geographic situation is known, then there may exist objective criteria that enable other indexes to be selected. The M&S Index always yields the highest evaluation, which means that it assumes the most unfavourable case possible when estimating the economic consequences of a given event. Although it can be tempting to broaden the information available by using updated data going back many years, it must always be remembered that current operating conditions and construction characteristics have nothing to do with those of the past. Therefore the interpretation of very old data must always be reasoned. The accidents recorded in the MHIDAS database and in the Marsh–McLennan Report generate results that are significantly similar and show a clear tendency towards more serious accidents, their average cost growing at a rate of between half a million and a million dollars per year. Furthermore, the most serious accidents registered in each year tend to increase much more significantly than the above figure ($5 million per year). By using techniques of descriptive statistics, it is possible to estimate the damage to be expected in the near future with a known margin of confidence.