بهره وری و رشد اقتصادی در گسترش اتحادیه اروپا

This paper deals with the effects of EMU enlargement (European Economic and Monetary Union) by evaluating the economic efficiency of growth policies of the 25 member countries. By using Data Envelopment Window Analysis the paper measures the policies adopted initiating economic growth of the 25 EU members for the time period of 1995–2005. Different factors reflecting countries’ investment policies have been used in order to measure chronically countries’ economic efficiency. The results reveal that the old 15 EU members have faced problems reforming their economic policies in order to cope with the EU enlargement which in turn had an impact on their economic efficiencies.

Recently the members of EU have been expanded from twenty-five to twenty-seven due to the entrance of Bulgaria and Romania. The EMU (European Economic and Monetary Union) enlargement therefore raises research questions regarding the economic advantages and risks associated with this enlargement especially for old member states. According to Friedrich List (List, 1841, p. 142): economic integration has essentially taken place between nations that already have achieved a comparative advantage in increasing returns activities (manufacturing) or, alternatively, as colonialism. In addition Backhaus (2001) argues that the Central European states followed the same path of economic development and integration. According to Kregel, Matzner, and Grabber (1992) and King (2002) Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries were based on several policies in order to obtain immediate transition towards free market economy. As a result the old EU members have redirected asymmetrically their trade flows towards the New Member States (Breuss, Fink, & Haiss, 2004). As such all the welfare gains from EU enlargement derive mainly by the trade creation between the EU members states (Herok & Lotze, 2000). Therefore the new form of economic integration had a significant different structure from the classical colonial form. Most of the partners have significant differences in their levels of economic development and this asymmetric economic integration has opposed pressure to the fiscal policies of the old members to cope with their budget transfers to the New Members States. According to Nahuis (2004) due to the EU enlargement the asymmetric shocks induce industrial restructuring and political turmoil. In that respect this paper primarily examines the effect of the policies adopted by the EU member states and their effect on economic efficiency. Moreover, it quantifies the economic gains/losses of EMU enlargement by measuring and comparing the economic efficiencies of all the twenty-five EU member states for the years 1995–2005 raising issues of dynamic determinations of economic development and growth.

In this study we applied DEA window analysis in order to compare the effect of EMU enlargement on economic efficiency of the twenty-five member countries by using conventional ratio measures in the suggested model and for the time period 1995–2005. The efficiency scores and the optimal ratio levels for inefficient countries for all the years of the study were obtained. Results drawn from the broadly used ratio analysis were also compared to the results derived from the DEA window model. The advantage of using DEA compared to economic ratios is that DEA provides us with an overall objective numerical score and ranking, for each one of the inefficient units. Specifically, DEA assists in efficiency comparisons with the simultaneous use of multiple criteria, which determine efficiency for each DMU, forming a rounded judgment on DMU efficiency taking into consideration a variety of efficiency dimensions and combining them into a single performance measure. Looking at the results of the conventional ratio analysis and our DEA window analysis we may conclude that even though DEA analysis provide us with a ranking taking into account all the variables, it needs conventional ratio analysis in order to clarify different aspects, which cannot be explained through input/output analysis. Furthermore, a Mann–Witney test has been conducted in order to verify the impact of EMU enlargement on the twenty-five EU member states. Combining the results of Mann–Witney test, ratio analysis and DEA analysis we concluded that the new EU members have been benefited more (on growth and economic terms) over their old EU members. According to Marelli (2004) this phenomenon is due to the fact that the situation in Europe is still far from homogeneous and a satisfactory degree of real convergence has not yet been achieved. In addition Eichengreen (2005) suggests that a reform of fiscal rules and procedures is needed at a national level. Therefore, EU bodies need to encourage countries towards those directions. Following this view Brück and Zwiener (2006) suggest that in order to cope with such growth inefficiencies a modified version of SGP is needed based on modifications of primary policy rules and the introduction of a medium-term debt ceiling. As such fiscal policy cannot be subordinated to short-term political objectives. Similar to our policy suggestions, Sosvilla-Rivero and Herce (2008) suggest that a common effort must be done towards the resolution of macroeconomic imbalances in liberalising markets of factors and products. Finally, it is worth mentioning that integration without policy monitoring and common reformulation of fiscal rules for all members at a national and EU level can lead to further increase of economic inequalities among the EU members creating unsustainable social and economic tensions.