تجزیه و تحلیل هزینه چرخه عمر از وسایل نقلیه و سوخت جایگزین در تایلند

High crude oil prices and pollution problems have drawn attention to alternative vehicle technologies and fuels for the transportation sector. The question is: What are the benefits/costs of these technologies for society? To answer this question in a quantitative way, a web-based model (http://vehiclesandfuels.memebot.com) has been developed to calculate the societal life cycle costs, the consumer life cycle costs and the tax for different vehicle technologies. By comparing these costs it is possible to draw conclusions about the social benefit and the related tax structure. The model should help to guide decisions toward optimality, which refers to maximum social benefit. The model was applied to the case of Thailand. The life cycle cost of 13 different alternative vehicle technologies in Thailand have been calculated and the tax structure analyzed.

Today almost all energy in the transportation sector originates from crude oil. Several problems related to the use of crude oil for transportation such as: air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and high expenses due to crude oil and petroleum imports. In the last few years great efforts (political and scientific) have been undertaken to replace or reduce the usage of crude oil with alternative fuels and vehicle technologies. Argentina, Brazil and Pakistan have successfully increased the number of natural gas vehicles. In Brazil, ethanol from cassava is widely used as a fuel. But in almost all other countries crude oil is the only primary energy source for the transportation sector. Because of unforeseable difficulties, alternative vehicle/fuel technologies have not yet entered the market. This especially applies for the fuel cell technology, which was expected to be available much earlier. The date at which it is expected that fuel cell vehicles will enter the market is frequently postponed. It is a common belief of the public that the fuel cell technology will be the ultimate solution for the transportation sector, but there are still several problems concerning technical issues, infrastructure and costs Hammerschlag Mazza, 2004. Other technologies developed much faster than expected. Hybrid vehicles for example, which were expected to be very expensive to produce, are already available (Toyota Prius and Honda Civic Greene et al., 2004). One major disadvantage of fuel cell systems is the low efficiency of hydrogen production. Due to this, several studies have suggested developing hybrid vehicles rather than fuel cell vehicles. Weiss et al., (2000) found that in 2020 the total system energy consumption of a diesel/electric hybrid vehicle could be 25% lower than the total system energy consumption of a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. Another future alternative could be the battery electric vehicle, which has a high potential to increase energy efficiency and reduce pollutant emissions (Delucchi et al., 2000). Hydrogen could be a clean energy source but until the technology is commercially available other opportunities have to be considered as well. Maybe a less radical change in technology is the first step to reduce the use of crude oil and improve air quality. Transition technologies like natural gas vehicles (NGV) or hybrid vehicles can link conventional fuels with future preferred fuels. A natural gas vehicle for example can use gasoline or natural gas as fuel. Due to the low pollutant emissions, a broad usage of natural gas vehicles could improve the urban air quality significantly (Hekkert Marko, 2005; Abbott, 2004). Innovations in conventional technology can be an option as well: A diesel/electric hybrid vehicle with particle trap for example has a high fuel efficiency and, due to the filter system, low pollution emissions. The advantage of the diesel hybrid option is that there is no need to build an expensive natural gas or hydrogen infrastructure. This paper addresses the question of how to determine the advantage/disadvantage of different technologies from an objective perspective. Which technology provides transportation at the least cost? There one has to distinguish between the consumer cost and the societal cost, which includes the external cost such as the damages through pollution.

A model has been created to calculate the societal life cycle costs, consumer life cycle costs and taxes for different vehicle technologies. The model includes the vehicle initial cost, the vehicle operational cost and the environmental damage cost and is available on the internet at http://vehiclesandfuels.memebot.com/. The model has been applied for 13 different near-term vehicle technologies in Thailand. The cost–benefits of these technologies and the tax structure in Thailand has been analyzed and discussed. One result is that under the current conditions the societal life cycle costs of vehicles which use compressed natural gas as fuel are significantly lower compared to other technologies. The main reason for the advantage is the lower fuel price of natural gas. On the other hand, hybrid vehicles have the highest societal life cycle costs because of the high production costs. Another result is that the differences in the pollution damage costs are small. The Thai vehicle taxation scheme gives huge incentives for consumers and producers to invest in alternative vehicle technologies. The problems of the taxation scheme are: 1. maintaining the balance between tax incentive and performance advantage, 2. small fuel-saving and fuel-efficient cars are disadvantaged. In further work, the model could be used to study certain aspects, impacts or long term effects in detail. It could be used to study the impact of higher crude oil prices, for example. Additionally, it could be possible to apply the concept for other technologies and fuel saving options such as the Eco Car, the battery or fuel cell vehicles (Supplementary data).