یک پارادایم جدید انرژی برای ترکیه: تجزیه و تحلیل سیاسی هزینه شامل ریسک برای انرژی پایدار

Implementing sustainable development policies in order to achieve economic and social development while maintaining adequate environmental protection to minimize the damage inflicted by the constantly increasing world population must be a major priority in the 21st century. While the emerging global debate on potential cost-effective responses has produced potential solutions such as cap and trade systems and/or carbon taxes as part of evolving sustainable energy/environmental policies, this kind of intellectual inquiry does not seem to be an issue among Turkish policy-making elites. This is mainly due to their miscalculation that pursuing sustainable energy policies is much more expensive in comparison to the utilization of fossil fuels such as natural gas. Nevertheless, the pegged prices of an energy sector dominated by natural gas are illusive, as both the political risks and environmental damage have not been incorporated into the current cost calculations. This paper evaluates energy policies through a lens of risk management and takes an alternative approach to calculating energy costs by factoring in political risks. This formulation reveals that the cost of traditional fossil-based energy is in fact more expensive than renewable energy. In addition to being environmentally friendly, the paradigm shift towards renewable energy policies would provide Turkey with a significant opportunity to stimulate its economy by being one of the first countries to develop green technologies and as a result this burgeoning sector would prompt job creation as well; mainly due to the externalities.

The European Union (EU) – to which Turkey has pledged to become a member – aims to increase renewable energy consumption to 20% in 2020. For geographical reasons, even though Germany is far less able to harness solar energy than Turkey, the former has been taking significant steps to develop its solar energy capabilities. Generation of electricity from non-traditional renewable sources such as solar and wind is not financially competitive with traditional means in the current prevailing market conditions without subsidies. Hence, governments have resorted to supporting enterprises for renewable energy development. For instance, Greece has been granting subsidies from 26 to 50 Euro cents/kW h for renewable energy development with guarantees of purchase, Bulgaria from 38 to 39 Euro cents/kW h, and Italy from 36 to 49 Euro cents/kW h (DEK-TMK). In comparison to these subsidies, the renewable energy bill proposed to the Turkish Parliament in November of 2010 is far too modest, from 5.5 to 10 Euro cents/kW h (Dunya Bulteni). In contrast to this meager subsidy, Turkey should set objectives that would ultimately lead to the capability for independent energy production, promote the development of local energy sources, and save 50 billion dollars spent on imported energy. However, Turkish policy-makers' conservative approach to energy has not allowed for such a shift in energy policies. According to Thomas Kuhn's well-known conceptualization, a paradigm is a coherent pattern of research designed around commonly held theoretical propositions and models, and a paradigm shift is the emergence of an alternative framework of common and shared analysis. As a philosopher of science, Kuhn (1962, p. 10) stressed the development of science and intellectual ideas; nevertheless, a paradigm is a sufficiently open-ended concept “to leave all sorts of problems for the redefined group of practitioners to resolve”. Thus, paradigm shifts can occur in policy as well. Several significant events such as environmental degradation due to climate change can lead to changes in the existing mind-set of policy-makers and eventually pave the way for new policy objectives and means. In order for the materialization of this paradigm shift in policy to occur, a change of ideas is essential. This paper's main objective is to contribute to a growing body of academic literature concerning shifts in prevalent ideas on energy and environmental policies (Eriş, 2002 and Helm, 2007) to achieve sustainable energy/development (Tester et al., 2005, Podobnik, 2006 and Elliott, 2007), thereby, fostering a paradigm shift towards sustainable policies with a special reference to Turkey's hydro-carbon based energy infrastructure. Utilizing risk-management as a means to take into account political risks, this paper ultimately aims to propose a formula that will reveal that the cost of the traditional fossil energy is indeed higher than the costs associated with renewable energy. The first part of the paper will make a conceptual analysis of energy sustainability by applying Richard Duncan's ‘Olduvai Theory’. Against this theoretical backdrop, the paper will go on to argue that since traditional energy policies prioritizing fossil fuels are not sustainable, policies should be adopted that emphasize renewable energy resources to make this transition. This will be elaborated upon with figures and data on energy projections. The second section will examine the state of renewable energy in Turkey and provide detailed information on the local potential for renewable energy sources. The third section will propose a political risk-inclusive approach for the adoption of sustainable energy policies in Turkey. Adding up political risks to the classic cost equation, we have tried to corrupt the orthodox cheap/un-risky fossil energy understanding. According to our proposition, sustainable energy policies would not only produce environmentally friendly and politically risk-free outcomes, but also stimulate the Turkish economy. Ultimately, renewable energy and related technologies will shape the future of the world and Turkey should shift its energy paradigm to secure its place among the first green economies.

In Turkey, it is not a common approach to make estimations and offer strategies for a given field or sector for 2030 or even 2050. For this particular reason, highlighting the importance of sustainable energy and renewable energy technologies are deemed utopian and often not taken seriously. But who would have guessed that the Turkish population, which was 13 million in 1927, would reach 72 million in such a short time and that electricity consumption per capita in Turkey would increase 838 times from 1923 to 2008. Many of the problems we face in Turkey today are based on a lack of belief about the impacts of current actions on the future. Today, even the most basic discussions reveal the vital importance of renewable energy for the future of the world. This paper indicates that renewable energy and technologies will shape the future of the world (both politically and financially). For this reason, Turkey must conduct the necessary research and development studies, implement sectoral and institutional reforms and complete the relevant legal framework before it is too late. The cost of electricity should be re-considered with the aforementioned political and financial risks attached to it. Renewable energy production costs must be pulled down to competitive levels with a series of marketing measures which may include the creation of a green budgetary fund (fed with modest taxes on fossil fuels) commissioned to subsidize renewable energy projects. In addition, green long-term credit schemes specifically aimed at renewable energy industries seems to be a good solution to help this sector flourish.