مدیریت بدهی های عمومی و اعتباری: شواهدی از یک اقتصاد در حال ظهور

This study is a contribution to the literature concerning the management of the public debt in emerging economies. A novelty in this article is the introduction of a fiscal credibility index based on the market's expectations in regard to the public debt to GDP ratio. The main objective is to present empirical evidence for the Brazilian case concerning the framework of the public debt composition and also the effect of this framework on public debt to GDP ratio. The findings demonstrate that the commitment with the public debt increases the fiscal credibility and that it is crucial for the success of the management of the public debt. Contrary to what is recommended in the standard literature an increase in the average maturity and the share of inflation-linked bonds imply costs that cannot be neglected.

Fiscal balance is essential for increasing private investment and sustaining economic growth (see Blanchard, 2010). The recent fiscal crisis observed in countries such as Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, turned on the red light for emerging economies. In particular, the management of the public debt must be implemented in a way that eliminates the default risk. Fiscal credibility is a key player in the economy because it enables a government to stabilize expectations in a manner that avoids a rise in long-term interest rates and thus mitigates the risk of insolvency. In short, nowadays, there is the recognition that credibility is crucial for building fiscal buffers in emerging economies (IMF, 2011). Brazil, one of the leaders of the emerging economies which had success in avoiding fiscal insolvency due to the subprime crisis, has, since 1999, implemented a strategy for managing public debt with the objective of extending the average maturity and improving the public debt composition. The main challenge for the Brazilian case is that credibility is not sufficiently developed and as a consequence there exists a trade-off between extending average maturity and public debt indexation. This study is a contribution to the literature concerning the management of the public debt in emerging economies. A novelty in this article is the introduction of a fiscal credibility index based on the market's expectations in regard to the public debt to GDP ratio. The main objective is to present empirical evidence for the Brazilian case concerning the framework of the public debt composition and also the effect of this framework on public debt to GDP ratio. The remainder of this study is organized as follows. The next section provides a brief overview of the literature regarding public debt management. Section 3 provides an analysis for credibility and management of the public debt and creates a fiscal credibility index based on the Brazilian case. Section 4 shows empirical evidence, through an econometric analysis, concerning the framework of the public debt composition and its effect on public debt to GDP ratio. The last section concludes the paper.

The findings demonstrate that the commitment with the public debt increases the fiscal credibility and that it is crucial for the success of the management of the public debt. In particular, an increase in the fiscal credibility permits the government to put in practice the strategy of increasing the share of bonds with fixed rate or inflation-linked and decreasing the public debt indexed to the interest rate. Contrary to what is recommended in the standard literature, an increase in the average maturity and the share of inflation-linked bonds imply costs that cannot be neglected which, in turn, increases the default risk (greater public debt to GDP ratio). In the same direction, the findings denote that an increase in the share of government bonds indexed to the exchange rate reduces the public debt to GDP ratio. In short, an efficient management of the public debt capable of assuring sustainability of the public debt demands that the government: searches for control over inflation, stabilizes the exchange rate, implements credible fiscal policy.