ارتباط بین بازارهای مالی و انتخاب خود اشتغالی در میان خانواده در مناطق روستایی چین

Our paper examines how credit markets operate through wealth to influence households’ entrepreneurial choices. Our results show that policy-led bank branch withdrawal in rural China has a significant negative impact on credit availability to rural households, though unexpectedly the effect is felt more strongly in informal than formal credit markets. Furthermore, we observe that self-employment is impeded by reductions in wealth associated with credit contraction. Policies which provide more and better formal financial services to rural households are predicted to increase the flow of credit, through both formal and informal channels, thereby supporting accumulation, diversification, and economic growth.

Among the many factors to which China's remarkable economic growth can be attributed, industrially oriented rural entrepreneurship is key. According to De Brauw, Huang, Rozelle, Zhang, and Zhang (2002), the fraction of self-employed in China's rural labor force grew from 4% to 16% between 1981 and 2000. Moreover, China's rural entrepreneurs are credited with promoting the development and modernization of China's rural economy (Mohapatra, Rozelle, & Goodhue, 2007). Specifically, Mohapatra et al. find that the rise of self-employment in rural China is of a type characterized by high capital intensity, which enhances the productivity of labor and implies a promise of rising wages and income. Recognizing the importance of household entrepreneurial activities for economic growth, our research examines the supporting role of credit markets. Owing to the presence of binding liquidity constraints, availability of credit is a critical factor in explaining entrepreneurial outcomes in rich and poor societies, alike. However, what is often overlooked is the dual role that financial institutions play in contributing to enterprise establishment and growth. As deposit-takers they enable the accumulation of capital, while as credit-suppliers they help to direct capital to its most efficient use. Exploiting an episode of policy-led withdrawal of bank branches in rural China, we use panel data on rural households from 1995 to 2002 to estimate two regression models. The paper follows in the tradition of recent literature (Burgess and Pande, 2005, Dupas and Robinson, 2009, Jayachandran, 2006, Menon and van der Meulen Rodgers, 2011 and Rosenzweig, 2001) that emphasizes the savings and insurance role that financial institutions play in facilitating new investment. Like other authors mentioned here, we assess the impact of changes in the number of bank branches on important economic outcomes. In our case, the dependent variables measure household borrowing and household participation in entrepreneurial activities. We contribute to the literature by shedding light on how banks facilitate rural household entrepreneurship in a developing country setting. Documenting this link between financial institutions and rural entrepreneurship can inform policy aimed at supporting a vibrant and diversified rural economy. In the rest of the paper, we proceed to describe the predominant financial institutions in rural China, their roles in the rural economy, and the specific policies that prompted branch withdrawal (Section 2), followed by a synthesis of the literature relating to wealth, entrepreneurship, and the means by which financial institutions can help household overcome liquidity constraints (Section 3), and finally a presentation of the empirical analysis, the results, and their implications for policy (Section 4).

Our data analysis has demonstrated that the number of RCC branches located within the township has a positive impact on borrowing for households in the first three wealth quartiles (Table 5, second row, first four columns). Contrary to expectations, much of the borrowing increase is concentrated in the informal sector (Table 5, sixth row, first four columns)—and we argue that it is motivated by the promotion of savings that allows households greater access to credit. RCC lending to wealthy households who serve as informal financial intermediaries is another possible channel of influence. A higher volume of borrowing (both formal and informal) in the village is shown to facilitate capital accumulation (Table 6, third and fourth row, second column). Finally, wealth is positively correlated with self-employment (Table 6, first row, second column), though the marginal contribution of changes in wealth may be relatively small. Most directly, the links that we have established, between the presence of a formal financial institution and the establishment of growth-producing entrepreneurial ventures, confirm our support for the trend of recent policy toward improving rural households’ financial system access. Our findings lend support for the measures enacted recently by the PBC to enhance the RCC role in rural financial service delivery. Examples include allowance of a lower reserve requirement, by 6 or 7 percentage points, for the RCC relative to other commercial banks, provision of certain incentives through tax exemptions, and integration into the central bank national payment system (Zhang, 2010). All of these promote the scale and quality of services that RCC can offer to its rural customer base, and therefore can be expected to contribute toward a more active local credit market that supports capital accumulation, entrepreneurial investment, and growth. However, our findings offer two additional caveats for policy design. First, though the informal sector generally falls outside the regulation and oversight of any governing body, it seems to be the primary source of credit for a substantial share of rural households, and as such, may be worthy of further attention. Second, the scope of interactions between the formal and informal credit sectors is potentially large, and the relationship appears to be a complementary one. At least in the short run, expansion of the formal credit market may also increase the volume of transactions conducted in the informal credit market. Better awareness and understanding of the relationship between the two sectors may allow for better realization of their mutual enhancement. In sum, more locally oriented financial services are good for local economic development, and interaction between the formal and informal sectors may be a key link toward fully meeting households’ saving and borrowing needs, thereby increasing their productivity and improving their welfare.