چگونگی ایستادگی صنعت غذاهای دریایی اروپا پس از انقلاب پرورش ماهی قزل آلا : تجزیه و تحلیل اقتصادی قیمت ماهی

The introduction of farmed salmon on the European fish markets has coincided with major organisational changes within the value chain. The present paper investigates the extent to which the value spread between the intermediaries has been modified thereafter not only for salmon but also for a few wild-caught species. The background of cointegration theory has been extended to refine the analysis of price transmission along the fish value chain. As a result, one could admit that the introduction of farmed salmon and globalisation of fishery markets has certainly benefited to the European consumers, but probably not to the extent of the most optimistic expectations because of market imperfections.

This article presents the outcome of a 3-year research project on margins and prices along various seafood market chains. The main objective of the study was to consider the impact of a large-scale technological change (salmon farming in Norway, Chile, Canada, Ireland and Scotland) on the organisation of the European seafood industry. Some questions which arise are—has the growth in the salmon industry created jobs in the European Union, or simply diverted them from other industries; to what degree has this product been substituted for other domestically produced species; how has the shift from wild-caught resources to farmed products affected the organisation of the seafood industry; and how has the value been distributed along the supply chain between the different stake-holders (producers, traders, processors, retailers)? These questions are of particular interest to the industry and have been looked at using various up-to-date economic models and techniques in order to improve both the understanding of how the changes have affected the industry, and the knowledge of the scientific concepts used in connection with market analysis. The issue of price transmission is one which is subject to intensive and ongoing discussion among economists looking at market power, transaction costs, asymmetry of transmission or imperfect information in markets. System dynamics, industrial organisation, cointegration theory, along with agricultural economics and economic sociology provide the analyst with complementary and useful tools for market analysis. All these models and theories have been used to improve the understanding of the European fish markets along vertical chains. Such a vertical perspective raises important issues because the value chain represents an area of interacting markets where a shock on raw materials (i.e. from the depletion of natural stocks, quota reduction, increased levels of fishing effort, innovation on fish farming, etc.) may be transmitted to the rest of the industry (processors, wholesalers, fishmongers). In reaction to this, companies may develop a bundle of strategic options to cope with the supply shock (vertical merger, supply agreement, contracts and sub-contracts, etc.), resulting in organisational changes within the industry. Theoretical thinking within the transaction cost school of thought predicts that the greater the uncertainty and the specificity of assets surrounding a transaction, the more likely the latter will be organised through a hierarchical arrangement (such as a pure vertical integration). The information given by prices on markets (variability, trends and cycles, level of gross margins) is very rich for the appraisal of uncertainty and the estimation of the bargaining power on the market (for supply and demand). For instance, the decreasing trend of salmon prices throughout the world quite clearly reveals the tremendous output level achieved by the suppliers due to higher productivity permitted by technological changes and economies of scale. The smooth evolution of prices also gives some insight as to the control over production achieved by salmon breeding, reducing the unexpected shocks on both supply and demand sides. This is not possible with the harvest of wild species in the case of fishing where seasonal and weather conditions have a much bigger effect on production.

The results show the extent to which the introduction of salmon aquaculture has coincided with major organisational changes within the value chain. As a consequence, the distribution of added value between the intermediaries has been somewhat modified. 7.1. Organisational adjustment following the introduction of farmed Salmon The globalisation of fish markets (frozen fillets of whitefish, fresh Atlantic salmon, frozen shrimps) has accelerated the ongoing specialisation process between the producing countries on the one hand and the processing/consuming countries on the other. Because of over-capacity, the number of jobs in fishing and farming companies has fallen by 30–50% within the past two decades in France, Finland and Norway. For other reasons, mainly due to concentration, the number of retailers has dramatically fallen by the same proportion in the major European countries. Conversely, the number of processing units has grown by 30–40% over the period in these same countries with the exception of Norway. This research puts forward the argument that concentration in the retail market has largely promoted the development of farmed salmon. Because of specific asset investments and economies of scale in the logistic chain, large exporting companies prefer to deal with larger retailers. The drop of salmon prices in Europe from 10 euros/kg in the early 1980s to 3 euros/kg in 2000 has matched the requirements of the multiple grocers looking for campaign products to attract new consumers. The aquaculture industry can also match retailers’ requirements of regularity of price, quantity and quality; conditions that most fishery products cannot offer. 7.2. The distribution of value within the European seafood chain At first glance, no clear evidence of market power was demonstrated through the cointegration results. Most of the marketing segments that were tested showed competitive price pass-through along the European value chain. In overall, price changes were correctly transmitted by the intermediaries between the producers and the consumers. Both the implementation of the European Union and the decrease of tariff barriers have contributed to greater integration and competition in the fish markets. However, a stricter definition and scrutiny of market efficiency gives less clear-cut results. In half of the tested price relationships, prices are not being fully transmitted. In some cases, the hypothesis of market power was rejected because the increasing margin only revealed the rising cost of processing. Processing and marketing inputs are increasingly substituted for the primary input to satisfy the consumer's wants. Interestingly, this substitution can happen because a new market organisation has taken place between the manufacturers and retailers. Contracts, sub-contracts and other vertical arrangements are being used to secure the supply of markets, or as vertical restraints imposed by the powerful retail chains to ‘claw’ back a substantial part of the rent from the producers/processors [22]. Other case studies show how some regulations (minimum import price of salmon, remaining trade barriers, feed quotas in Norway) may have created market power for Norwegian firms exporting to the EU countries [23]. This monopoly power is certainly the price to pay for the conflict of interest between the EU producers and consumers. As an overall conclusion of the whole research, it could be said that the opening and globalisation of fishery markets has certainly benefited to the European consumers, but probably not to the extent of the most optimistic expectations [21]. The increasing mark-ups and other market imperfections revealed by the vertical quasi-integration have affected the quality of price transmission and the scope for consumer benefits by re-distributing the rent along the chain in favour of a few stakeholders such as foreign exporters, domestic large processors and retailers. In the future, detailed research on the nature of contractual relationships between suppliers and more precise estimates of the distributional effects of market policies would complement usefully the findings of this project.