تجزیه و تحلیل اقتصادی از اثرات آزاد سازی تجارت در بازار لبنیات آسیا

This paper develops an economic analysis of the impacts of further trade liberalization scenarios on Asian dairy markets, using a world dairy model incorporating both vertical and spatial characteristics of the world dairy sector. Japan and Korea’ producers will suffer much bigger losses from trade liberalization than other countries in the region; Japan and Korea’s producers get much more protection from trade distortions than from domestic subsidy. India is a potential competitive exporter if Asia is liberalized. China and India are potential competitive exporters under global free trade. South East Asia and other South Asian countries remain importers under free trade. Greater trade liberalization around the world increases exports for potential exporters and/or ease importing pressure for potential importers. The increasing order of competitiveness of Asian dairy economies sectors is found to be Japan, Korea, South East Asia, other South Asia, China and India. China and India consumers would lose from world trade liberalization, but the other countries’ consumer surplus will increase.

Dairy industries around the world are one of the most distorted agricultural sectors. In order to resolve the issue of trade distortion and promote trade liberalization of dairy products, GATT concluded the Uruguay Round Agreements in late 1993 after eight years of painstaking negotiations. As a component of the agreement, GATT/WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) requires all GATT members to make reduction commitments on domestic support, market access, and export subsidy. The modest commitment has been fulfilled by developed countries at the end of 2000 and by developing countries at the end of 2004, with 1986–1988 as the base period for reduction. The least developed countries were not required of any reduction commitment. Now, a new round of trade liberalization in dairy sector will eventually be initiated. How will it impact Asian dairy markets? Lee et al. (2005) examined the effects of: (1) decreasing Korea’s high over-quota dairy product tariffs by 50% by 2015 and the much lower within quota tariffs and single tariffs decline by 25% by 2015 (Doha scenario); and (2) Korea completely opening its border for dairy product imports with zero tariffs. They conclude that dairy trade liberalization would cause significant increases in imports, lower prices of processed dairy products for Korean consumers, but quite small reductions in returns to resources owned by Korean dairy farmers. Dong (2005) pointed out that both Asian dairy consumption and supply show upward trends over the next decade. Asian dairy demand growth in the next decade is mostly driven by its income and population growth. Given a 1% additional growth in income, cheese consumption will increase 0.45% and WMP consumption will increase 0.39%. With a technology change which increases the yield per cow, Asian domestic milk output increases and consequently decreases its dependence on imports. Other authors have studied other issues associated with Asian dairy markets, like efficiency, competitiveness and trade potential. One limitation of current studies is that the classification of dairy products is very crude. Generally dairy products are limited to less than five products while not considering their component differences. As dairy products are much different from each other even for the same product category, this will lead to some misunderstanding. This paper provides an economic analysis of the impacts of further trade liberalization on Asian dairy markets. A world dairy model is employed, which reflects both vertical and spatial characteristics of dairy sector. Both domestic and trade policies changes in Asia are examined. The analysis indicates how trade liberalization is likely to affect farm milk price, dairy production, consumption and trade, and consumer and producer surplus in Asian countries. A longer version of this paper provides further details on the analysis (see Peng and Cox, 2005).

This paper investigates the impact of trade liberalization on Asian dairy markets beyond the year 2005 by extending the current URAA/GATT agreement to 2007. One unifying theme across these simulation results concerns the impacts of dairy trade liberalization on the more protected dairy regions (Japan and Korea) vs. the low cost potential exporting regions (India and, to a lesser extent, China), and the other slightly protected economies. The impacts from unilateral trade liberalization by Asian countries and world multilateral trade liberalization on Japan and Korea are significantly different from other Asian countries. Japan and Korea’ producers suffer a loss of more than $2.9 billion and $444 million, respectively. Their farm milk price will be hammered (decrease more than 57% and 39%, respectively). Their milk production will decrease more than 1875 thousand MT and 280 thousand MT, respectively. But their consumers will benefit more than $3.2 billion and $469 million, respectively. From a decomposition of the Asian liberalization scenario, we find that Japan and Korea’s producers get more protection from trade restrictions than from domestic subsidy, as they suffer smaller losses from eliminating domestic subsidy than from elimination of trade policies. India is a potential competitive exporter to Asia and the world. Trade liberalization will help to increase its farm milk price and producer surplus while decreasing consumer surplus. China is a potential importer in Asia if only the latter liberalizes, but could become a competitive exporter in world markets under free trade. Trade liberalization does not have much impact on China. South East Asia and other South Asian countries are potential importers in Asia and the world. Their consumers will benefit from trade liberalization while producers suffer a loss. But these impacts are limited compared with Japan and Korea. Greater trade liberalization around the world will help to increase exports for potential exporters or ease importing pressure for potential importers. For potential importers, their producer surplus loss and consumer surplus gains will decrease. For potential exporters, their producer surplus gains will increase. Finally, the World liberalization scenario indicates that the order of competitiveness of Asian dairy economies from least competitive to most competitive is Japan, Korea, South East Asia, other South Asia, China and India. Therefore, world dairy trade liberalization will increase average dairy consumption prices in China and India, and decrease it in the other economies of Asia. China and India’s consumers will lose from trade liberalization, but the other countries consumer surplus will increase. Asia’s net dairy products imports will increase 230 thousand MT, most of which will come from Australia and New Zealand.